NFL MVP Odds – Who Are the Frontrunners?

The 2026 NFL season is now well underway, with the Bills, 49ers, and Seahawks excelling in the opening two rounds of fixtures. A number of star players have also enjoyed superb starts to the campaign. These include the Bill’s quarterback Josh Allen, while the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes also rolled back the years as he threw 382 yards and three touchdowns to secure victory against the Colts. Unsurprisingly, such performances are generating significant interest in the NFL MVP winner market on Polymarket. More than $1 million has been traded on event contracts so far, with Allen currently the overwhelming favorite ahead of his rivals. The 30-year-old has a 24% win probability at the time of writing, which is double that of his nearest rival Brock Purdy (12%). But who are the best value picks at the time of writing? Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other options? Here’s our list of the best sports prediction markets. Josh Allen Odds – The Bills’ Star Player and Momentum Pick – But is he Overpriced? Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP? Yes 32% · No 68% View full market & trade on Polymarket “Josh Allen” | “Yes” at 25¢ | 24% Chance While Allen has never won or even appeared in a Super Bowl, he was crowned the regular season MVP in 2024. He has started the current campaign in superb form, too, throwing 582 yards and five touchdowns in his two starts. The offseason appointment of offensive coordinator Joe Brady as head coach is having a hugely positive impact on Allen’s game. The brains behind LSU’s record-breaking college football season in 2019, Brady has replaced the outgoing Sean McDermott and now has full tactical control over the side. Brady is best-known as a passing coordinator who prioritizes dynamism and unpredictability, creating more options when Allen is in possession. His switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base also highlights a more offensive approach that will maximize the quarterback’s unique skillset. Of course, Brady’s structural switch has negatively impacted the Bills defense. The franchise has allowed an average of 368 defensive yards per game so far in 2026, while shipping eight touchdowns. However, they’re currently averaging 38.5 points-per-game from an offense perspective, and Allen will continue to benefit from his coach’s aggressive tactics. Allen is currently priced at 25¢ by Polymarket and on similar US prediction markets, which offers less upside when compared with rival candidates. Although this could theoretically peak as high as 85¢ during the regular season, the perennial risk of injury creates a price discount and natural cap at 70¢ or lower. There’s definitely some value in buying “Yes” shares now and looking to hold deep into the season or until settlement. Just note that this introduces potential liquidity traps, so be sure to identify a viable exit point. Did you know? Did you know? Our exclusive Polymarket promo code, CORG, will earn you a $20 trading bonus when you sign up to Polymarket and make a $10 deposit. Brock Purdy Odds – A Value Pick With Huge Potential Upside Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP? Yes 11% · No 89% View full market & trade on Polymarket “Brock Purdy” | “Yes” at 12.1¢ | 12% Chance Brock Purdy took center stage on the opening weekend, starring for the 49ers as they thumped the much-vaunted LA Rams. Purdy threw 205 completed yards and three touchdowns, while also recording a single interception. The 26-year-old then produced another stellar quarterback performance during a 22-point victory against the Dolphins, throwing another 287 yards and two further touchdowns. Purdy ranks eighth for the average number of yards thrown per game so far in 2026 (246.0). However, he tops the ratings for accuracy, completing 45 of his 56 attempted passes (80.3%). His Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) of 95.7 on ESPN also highlights the incredible influence he has on his team. You can currently purchase “Yes” shares in Purdy at just 12.1¢. This reveals a tremendous potential upside, especially given the relative strength of his teammates and the fact that the 49ers are now second favorites to be crowned the NFC top seeds (behind the Seahawks). Purdy’s impressive statistical efficiency also betrays his consistency. So, I expect his price to rise incrementally throughout the regular season, potentially up to 30¢. Although it may be restricted beyond this point by Allen’s dominance of the market and his outdated reputation as a system quarterback, this will still allow you to sell profitably if you buy-in now. Lamar Jackson Odds – An Underpriced Two-Time MVP Winner Will Lamar Jackson win the 2026 NFL MVP? Yes 9% · No 92% View full market & trade on Polymarket “Lamar Jackson” | “Yes” at 9¢ | 9% Chance While the Ravens may have lost narrowly to the Saints last weekend, Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson produced another excellent performance. He threw 235 yards and one touchdown, while also recording a single interception. Jackson remains the engine of the Ravens offensive unit. He has thrown 559 yards across his two appearances in 2026 so far, while completing 67.9% of his attempted passes. He has also won two historic regular season MVP awards, in 2019 and 2023. The 29-year-old remains at the peak of his powers, too, so it’s slightly surprising to see him priced as low as 9¢ at the time of writing. Once again, this has much to do with Allen’s dominance of the market and current trader sentiment. Voter fatigue could also be affecting casual traders, who may be swayed by a first-time winner narrative. Overall, Jackson offers incredible value at his current price. In addition to his pedigree and current form, the Ravens are expected to fare well in the AFC, and team performance is highly influential when determining the eventual MVP winner. So, if Baltimore wins consistently and keeps pace with the Bills, Jackson’s price could quickly increase to the 25¢ – 30¢ range. This will create a viable exit point towards the end of the season if you buy “Yes” now. Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images Patrick Mahomes Odds – A Historically Proven and Heavily Underpriced Contender Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL MVP? Yes 8% · No 92% View full market & trade on Polymarket “Patrick Mahomes” | “Yes” at 9¢ | 9% Chance Mahomes is another two-time MVP winner (in 2018 and 2022), while he has been voted the Super Bowl’s Most Valuable Player on three separate occasions. The 31-year-old has started the new campaign in fine form, too. He has thrown 566 yards and five touchdowns in two matches so far, matching MVP favorite Allen stride-for-stride. He was particularly impressive in the recent win against the Colts, and looks back to full fitness after his ACL tear last winter. So, why can you buy “Yes” shares in Mahomes for just 9¢? Well, his late-season injury in 2025 involved complete tears of both the ACL and LCL, while he has since undergone extensive reconstructive surgery of the affected knee. This may be deterring casual traders from backing Mahomes in the market. Similarly, the Chiefs endured a difficult season in 2025, going 6–11 (.353) and failing to reach the playoffs. Despite their positive start in 2026, traders remain cautious as the side’s identity continues to evolve. This creates opportunity, however, and there’s definitely value in backing Mahomes at 9¢. The quarterback’s pedigree means that his price could increase rapidly if he and the Chiefs continue to perform well, potentially reaching the 20¢ – 25¢ range by mid-season. This could deliver a maximum ROI of 177.78% in a relatively short period of time. Although the price could peak above 40¢ if the Chiefs compete for the AFC top seeding, holding your position for this long unlocks higher risk and potentially lower liquidity. The Last Word – Trading the NFL MVP Winner Market This market is focused on the regular season MVP winner, and it will settle on or around 14th February, 2027. Note that this is completely separate to the Super Bowl MVP award, which is awarded to the best and most influential player in the NFL’s showpiece game. In terms of market options, you should also note that QBs have dominated the NFL MVP regular season award. In fact, it has been won by quarterbacks on 49 occasions since 1957, with 34 separate players claiming the honor. Quarterbacks have also won in 13 consecutive seasons since 2013. Currently, Josh Allen is the overwhelming favorite and offers value if you intend to buy and hold until settlement. However, his dominance is also creating potential value elsewhere, with Brock Purdy, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes all heavily underpriced. Regardless of your pick, be sure to identify a potential exit price for each of your trades. This will help you to strike the balance between maximizing profits and avoiding low liquidity traps. Want to make any of these trades? Use our exclusive CORG promo code on Polymarket to earn a $20 trading bonus when you register and deposit $10. The post NFL MVP Odds – Who Are the Frontrunners? appeared first on Casino.org.