Macau casino GGR in early Sept tracks seasonal softness: UBS

Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) tracked seasonal softness in the first six days of September, averaging MOP633 million (US$78.34 million) per day, suggested banking institution UBS in a memo, citing its own channel checks. The average daily GGR run-rate for the September 1 to 6 period was up circa 4 percent year-on-year; though it was down about 11.5 percent when compared to the average daily GGR of MOP706 million in August, noted UBS. That compares with an average month-on-month decline of about 5 percent due to “seasonality” between 2015 to 2019, according to the bank. “Between the segments, mass daily revenue run-rate was down 10 percent to 12 percent month-on-month; while VIP volume daily run-rate was down 8 percent to 10 percent month-on-month, at VIP hold of 3.0 percent to 3.3 percent,” UBS stated. Macau’s August casino GGR was just over MOP21.89 billion, down 1.2 percent year-on-year, but up 8.1 percent sequentially. The August tally nonetheless marked a third consecutive month of year-on-year decline in the city’s GGR, following 16 straight months of growth. The consensus estimate for the city’s average daily GGR for the whole September is in the range of MOP650 million to MOP670 million. If realised, that would represent a year-on-year growth of about 7 percent to 10 percent, UBS noted. In the memo, the banking institution also cited its own hotel booking survey for the upcoming China National Day holiday period, known in the industry as the October Golden Week. China’s State Council has designated this year’s National Day holiday as running from October 1, a Thursday, to October 7, a Wednesday. “Based on the 31 hotels that we track, there are five fewer hotels being sold out year-on-year for the upcoming October Golden Week (October 1 to 7), while average comparable hotel price declines 22 percent year-on-year,” UBS said.