S.Korea casinos could lose up to US$1.72bln in gaming spend once MGM Osaka opens: study

The South Korean casino sector could see an outflow of as much as KRW2.32 trillion (US$1.72-billion) in annual gaming spend, once the MGM Osaka integrated resort (IR) with casino launches in Japan in 2030. That is the forecast of an academic study presented by Kyung Hee University tourism professor, Lee Chung-ki (pictured), at a Korea Casino Association forum on Wednesday. The session was titled: “Impact Analysis of Japan’s Introduction of Casino Integrated Resort (IR)” The study suggested MGM Osaka could divert between KRW316.51 billion to nearly KRW1.27 trillion in gaming spend from Kangwon Land – South Korea’s only casino resort offering gambling to locals. The country’s 17 foreigner-only casinos could lose between KRW807.07 billion to KRW1.05 trillion, according to the latest study. Prof. Lee’s earlier 2018 research had projected KRW2.75 trillion in total outflows from the South Korean casino industry, as a result of the arrival of MGM Osaka. The updated survey was based on responses gathered between September 4 and 28 this year, covering 1,250 South Koreans that already travel overseas, as well as 493 Kangwon Land domestic customers, and an aggregate of 423 Japanese and Chinese mass-market and VIP players that currently use South Korea’s foreigner-only casinos. Based on the 42.7 percent of South Korean overseas travellers polled, that expressed interest in visiting MGM Osaka, the survey compilers projected that percentage onto the circa 27.74-million overseas-bound departures by South Koreans in 2025. This yielded circa 11.85 million potential visitors from South Korea to MGM Osaka, or about 14.21 million annual visits after factoring in an average visit frequency of 1.2 times. The up-to KRW1.27-trillion outflow estimated from Kangwon Land, was calculated based on factors including operator-reported player spend per person for 2025, and the resort’s reported average hold rate for 2025, of 23.6-percent. The final maximum outflow calculation for Kangwon Land was arrived at in the context of the 52.1-percent share of its surveyed customers that expressed an intention to visit MGM Osaka, which suggested 445,304 potential visitors to MGM Osaka annually among current Kangwon Land clientele. To estimate the number of South Korea’s foreigner-only casino customers that might go to MGM Osaka, the survey started with the just-over 3.49 million admissions recorded in 2025. MGM Osaka’s attraction It then meshed that with the 68.1 percent visit-intention rate toward MGM Osaka among mass players indicated by the survey, and the 81.5-percent visit-intention rate among VIP players. It produced a figure of circa 1.13-million potential annual visits to MGM Osaka by current patrons of South Korea’s foreigner-only casinos. The survey applied the 2025-average of 11.9-percent casino hold rate for mass-market players at South Korean foreigner-only casinos, and an average VIP hold rate also at 11.9 percent, in order to help calculate potential spend ‘leakage’ to MGM Osaka. Among Kangwon Land customers’ reasons for wanting to visit MGM Osaka, were “trying a new casino”. It ranked first as a motivation, at 38.4 percent of respondents. That was followed by “expectations of fewer entry restrictions or regulations”, at 20.7 percent; and “access to a wider range of facilities” at 17.6 percent. Respondents’ leading requested improvements at Kangwon Land were: “better service”, mentioned by 19.7 percent; additional “ancillary facilities”, at 15.8 percent; “24-hour operation”, at 15.1 percent; “raising the bet amounts” permitted, mentioned by 13.6 percent of those responding; and “relaxing visit-day limits” identified by 12.5 percent of respondents. The study argued that for South Korea to increase its casinos’ contributions to the country’s Tourism Promotion and Development fund, in the run-up to the launch of MGM Osaka, could curb non-gaming investment and casino competitiveness with other offerings in the region. The study authors also warned that any government suggestion of introducing renewable licences for foreigner-only casinos could create investment uncertainty and weaken employment and service standards.