“Pricing purely on opinion” – bet365 and Betfair insights on Man Utd next manager markets

Manchester United manager, Michael Carrick, is now odds on with some of the UK’s biggest bookmakers to become the first Premier League manager sacked in the 2026/27 season. Carrick has only picked up one win in the first eight games of the season with Man Utd, leading to him becoming a 4/6 favourite with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair, and 4/9 favourite with Ladbrokes and Coral, to be the first manager of the season on the chopping block. William Hill has suspended the market, while bet365 has priced it slightly differently, giving Carrick 8/11 to still be Man Utd manager on New Year’s Day 2027. But how do UK bookies price this? With the international break coming up – a period in which clubs are notorious for sacking managers – and the biggest club in the country in Man Utd being the club where the manager is under the heaviest amount of pressure, the market will attract plenty of punters. There is also the question of integrity – how do bookmakers ensure that punters aren’t gaining unfair advantages on these markets? A breach of integrity rules occurred on a similar market in 2019, when operators had a market on which club Kieran Trippier would join next. Trippier told his friends to ‘lump on’ him transferring to Atlético Madrid. You can guess the rest. Despite bookmakers being well aware that cases like these can occur, these types of markets are still offered. But how do they ensure that there is no foul play involved, and how do they keep their fingers on the buttons when trade journalists ‘scoop’ their sports-themed ‘exclusive’? SBC News gets the lowdown on this with bet365’s Sports and Trading Expert, Steve Freeth, and Betfair’s Senior PR Executive, James Mackie. What factors make you change the odds on manager markets? Mackie: Key news sites, social media and personal opinion all come under consideration when it comes to pricing these markets and it is always very much a watching brief situation to keep on top of the ever-changing landscape that we see with these manager markets. Freeth: The pricing is based purely on opinion. We use the usual news outlets, social media and other sources to gauge the situation before trading accordingly. Clearly, we need to remain vigilant and monitor all the latest news when trading. In some cases, it can be a matter of being ‘first to react’ when a high-profile journalist breaks a story. If multiple journalists report the same development, we would suspend the market. How popular have the related markets been, and what approach are you taking with the Man Utd situation that’s currently unfolding? Freeth: In situations such as the one involving Man Utd, we differ from the majority of bookmakers. We like to offer betting on a specific date, with the current manager included in the market, as we do with transfer markets featuring a player at their current club. If the current manager rides out the storm, we can settle the market based on the manager in charge on that specific date. This differs from the Next Permanent Manager market, where the outcome may not change for some time. For example, experience tells me to be wary of offering too big a price for the current incumbent, regardless of the situation. However, Michael Carrick was available at 12/1 to be Man Utd manager on 1 January and, of course, that price has shortened since Sunday evening, when much of the football world was predicting his downfall. The delay since Sunday evening and the news breaking today on Carrick remaining in charge for the Chelsea game had us shortening to 5/4 after a surge of interest. Mackie: The next Man Utd manager market will always be popular with the size and profile the club has but especially in times like these when the team is struggling and media coverage is 24/7. The international break does see more bets than usual on these markets as that’s when the club’s hierarchy may look to replace a struggling manager and punters latch onto this potential outcome. The trading floor has been a hive of activity over the last few weeks especially when it comes to the next Premier League manager to leave the market which has kept the traders on their toes with four managers flip flopping between favouritism off the back of results and media attention. How much more difficult is pricing this Man Utd market like this as opposed to their regular fixtures? Freeth: We view these markets differently from ‘run-of-the-mill’ fixtures, and core markets offered. Being more topical and volatile, we approach and manage them accordingly, trade-wise; acknowledging we may incur a surge of interest & support on a selection, which in turn can create a story for the bet365 News team to cover.