October key to Macau meeting 2026’s US$29bln gaming revenue forecast: Chief Executive

October could prove crucial regarding whether Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) would be able to meet the government’s 2026 target figure of MOP236 billion (US$29.20 billion), said on Saturday the city’s leader, Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai (pictured). Mr Sam noted Macau’s monthly GGR had experienced four consecutive months of year-on-year decline up to September. He added the government would be monitoring carefully its public spending as the GGR monthly numbers came in over the final quarter. He was speaking on the sidelines of a Government Headquarters open day session this weekend. The annual estimate on GGR – revenue which attracts an effective 40 percent tax rate – is used as a guide for the city’s public spending budget. Mr Sam said the administration was currently assessing whether the downturn stemmed from “shifting internal and external economic conditions” – such as cyclical adjustments in stock and property markets in neighbouring regions – or whether post-pandemic revenue growth seen year-on-year seen since 2023 had peaked and was now trending toward stabilisation or decline. The Chief Executive said the government would closely monitor the situation and consult with various sectors of society to determine how to manage essential public expenditures – including fiscal obligations, social security, healthcare, and education – should gaming revenue continue to fall. Although gross gaming revenue fell year-on-year in each of the past four months, the crucial month of October saw a year-on-year increase in the number of visitors to Macau during the “Golden Week” holiday period, Mr Sam noted. The government is closely monitoring whether this rise in visitor volume has translated into higher gross gaming revenue, the Chief Executive said. There are currently no plans to adjust the full-year gross gaming revenue forecast, he added He observed that gaming revenue for the first nine months of this year had totalled approximately MOP187.1 billion, which meant the final three months this year would need to generate in aggregate circa MOP50 billion in GGR, to meet the government’s forecast. Mr Sam noted that the gaming industry was the most vital sector of Macau’s economic structure, accounting for 80 percent of the region’s fiscal tax revenue and played a pivotal role in the local economy and public finances.