NFL Wants Risky Prediction Markets Removed

The NFL wants to see prediction markets cut out selections on the league’s games, with Chief Compliance Officer Sabrina Perel raising objections over the exchange’s practices of offering action on seasonal games and the Super Bowl. NFL Keeps Objecting to Prediction Market Options The NFL has described these markets as “objectionable,” and leaned into one very specific explanation: that the markets listed by prediction market platforms are some of the most susceptible to manipulation. In a letter addressing the matterl, Perel simply stated: “It is deeply concerning that bets within the objectionable categories that we identified months ago have been and continue to be listed as contracts on exchanges.” Among the markets that make Perel and her fellow executives have doubts are such options as a “kicker would miss a field goal” or whether a “quarterback’s first pass would be incomplete.” There are others, but ultimately these are the types of markets that could be manipulated very easily by the parties involved. In a way, this is not unlike the recent case involving former US Congressman George Santos who traded on himself to attend the State of the Union Adress. Perel notes that certain prediction markets could be known to insiders before the public finds out, and this create a vicious circle in which people may be tempted to simply act on this knowledge no matter how integruous they may be. Player injuries and availability, their return timeline, misconduct, penalties, replay decisions and so on are among the markets that could be fixed, as they rely on people who may be aware of what prediction markets are saying. CFTC Also Finds Certain Markets ‘Financially Perverse The regulator, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has met the NFL’s recommendations in spirit and has opined a similar prohibition of injury markets, as well as player return timelines, but there is one important snag. These are just deliberations with no real concrete action taken. The CFTC acknowledged, however, that these types of markets would create “perverse financial incentives” which could push insiders into acting on such information and undermining the integrity of the sport. Despite the NFL’s objections, such markets continue to be traded as the run-up to the new season heats up, with the first season due to kick off tomorrow, September 9.