NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds 2026: Mahomes' Race to Lose

Want to get more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account here.Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the prohibitive favorite in the NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds after returning from a devastating ACL tear suffered at the end of the 2025-26 campaign. Mahomes is coming off a stat-stuffing performance against the Colts, while Kyler Murray has cleared concussion protocol and will return under center for the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3. Another intriguing candidate is climbing up the NFL odds board: Aaron Donald. The three-time Defensive Player of the Year made his long-awaited return to the Los Angeles Rams on Monday, appearing in his first NFL game since 2023. Key Takeaways: Mahomes makes an early statement Murray gets the green light for Week 3 Donald shakes off the rust NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds Player Name Probability Patrick Mahomes 68% Aaron Donald 5% Kyler Murray 5% Daniel Jones 4% Fred Warner 3% Joe Burrow 3% George Kittle 2% Michael Penix Jr. 2% Nick Bosa 1% Malik Nabers 1% Odds as of 9-22. Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.Kalshi is a regulated financial exchange where you trade on real-world event outcomes. Instead of traditional odds, prices are listed as percentages (0-100%), representing the market’s estimated probability of an event occurring. Start trading with Kalshi today! Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts — including NFL futures — to get $35! Sign Up Now at *Eligible U.S. locations only NFL Comeback Player of the Year favorites Kansas City Chiefs superstar Patrick Mahomes has looked no worse for wear through two games since returning from a torn ACL and LCL. Although the two-time MVP was largely conservative in Week 1, Mahomes showcased his elite form on Sunday Night Football against Indianapolis, throwing for 382 yards and three touchdowns in Kansas City's thrilling 33-30 overtime win. Kyler Murray's first-quarter concussion in Week 1 caused his odds to drop from 15% to 5%, but Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell announced that the former first overall pick will be ready to return in Week 3. Aaron Donald made his long-awaited return against the Giants in Week 2, appearing in his first NFL game in nearly three years. He played 32 snaps and posted a 27.8% win rate while adding three tackles in the Rams' dominant 28-6 victory. Does Donald actually qualify for CPOY? Donald is currently given a 5% probability at Kalshi to win the award, but should he even be eligible? The CPOY guidelines were recently codified following Joe Flacco's "Comeback from Sucking" in 2023-24. "The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season." A voluntary retirement by Donald certainly wouldn't fit those criteria, but it might not stop voters from casting their ballots for No. 99 anyway. Our Brad Senkiw looked at how sportsbooks are handling the confusion surrounding Donald's Comeback Player of the Year eligibility. NFL Comeback Player of the Year futures predictions The most intriguing challenger is Kyler Murray, who gets a fresh start with the Minnesota Vikings after playing just five games in 2025. He’ll be playing under QB whisperer Kevin O’Connell, who helped completely transform Sam Darnold during his time with the Vikings. If O’Connell can help Murray rediscover that level of play, the former No. 1 overall pick should emerge as Mahomes’ biggest challenger. Jon Metler's NFL Futures Fund offers another pick in the Comeback Player of the Year market. Pick Odds Pick date Units Kyler Murray 15% Aug. 1 2.5 Popular NFL futures markets NFL MVP odds NFL OPOY odds NFL DPOY odds NFL ROY odds NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting trends • Over the last eight years, the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award has gone to a quarterback seven times. • From 2014 to 2018, every Comeback Player of the Year had suffered a season-ending injury during the previous year, and Alex Smith won in 2020 after recovering from a devastating leg injury that almost required amputation. • Joe Burrow joins Chad Pennington (2006 and 2008) as the only player to win this award twice. Previous NFL Comeback Player of the Year award winners Here's a look at the recent award history (preseason favorite and winner odds courtesy of Sports Odds History): Year NFL CPOY winner Team 2026 Christian McCaffrey San Francisco 49ers 2025 Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals 2024 Joe Flacco Cleveland Browns 2023 Geno Smith Seattle Seahawks 2022 Joe Burrow Cincinnati Bengals 2021 Alex Smith Washington Commanders 2020 Ryan Tannehill Tennessee Titans 2019 Andrew Luck Indianapolis Colts 2018 Keenan Allen Los Angeles Chargers 2017 Jordy Nelson Green Bay Packers This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here and view our best betting sites or check out our top sportsbook promos.