Maybank cuts GEN Singapore earnings estimate by up to 18pct as RWS hotel works curb room supply for top players

Maybank Investment Bank Bhd has cut its earnings estimates for Genting Singapore Ltd for this year and the following two years, amid renovations at the Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) casino resort likely to “disrupt operations for the next three financial years”. Nonetheless, the institution said the company has “attractive dividend yields” of 6.7 per annum. Maybank said in a Friday memo that it was cutting its earnings estimates for Genting Singapore by up to 18 percent, following the issuance of the company’s third-quarter results on Thursday. The firm’s Resorts World Sentosa property is one half of Singapore’s casino duopoly. “Reflecting lower VIP volume… and mass-market GGR [gross gaming revenue]… we cut our financial-year 2026, 2027 and 2028 earnings estimates by 18 percent, 14 percent and 14 percent” respectively, wrote analyst Samuel Yin Shao Yang. The bank now thinks VIP volume will be SGD24.0 billion (US$18.7 billion) across all three years, versus its previous forecast of SGD28 billion for each year. The institution lowered its mass-market GGR to be SGD1.5 billion for each of the years, versus its earlier prediction of SGD1.6-billion annually for each year. The Maybank analyst observed: “Third-quarter and nine-months 2026 results underwhelmed as operations weakened due to hotel renovations.” “Genting Singapore stated that these disruptions are expected to persist until early financial year 2028,” he added. “Thus, we cut our earnings estimates by 14 percent to 18 percent to reflect lower VIP volume and mass-market GGR on lower room inventory to house VIPs and premium mass market gamblers.” Maybank said renovations at Resorts World Sentosa’s 464-room Hotel Michael (pictured) had cut room inventory by 232, leaving the resort with about 1,000 rooms in operation. Within the fourth quarter, “some of” the rejigged Hotel Michael rooms would be “ready, while the other 232 rooms at Hotel Michael and the 121-room Crockford Towers will be renovated,” eventually bringing the resort’s available room count down to about 900. Mr Yin noted: “Genting Singapore expects Hotel Michael and Crockford Towers to fully reopen in first-half 2027 and early 2028 respectively. This implies to us that VIP volume and premium mass market will be supressed over the next three financial years.” Genting Singapore posted third-quarter profit after tax of SGD54.7 million, down 42.2 percent from the prior-year period. Maybank said that third-quarter and nine-month core net profit were respectively circa 53 percent of its full-year estimate. The bank attributed the shortfall partly to a third-quarter “VIP win rate of 2.7 percent which was below the theoretical VIP win rate of 3.5 percent”. Additionally, third-quarter VIP volume of circa SGD6.0 billion had come in “15 percent below” the bank’s expectations”, and third-quarter mass market GGR of circa SGD366 million had been “9 percent below” the institution’s expectations. Had the VIP win rate been in line with the theoretical rate, third-quarter earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation “would have been SGD36 million higher at SGD198 million,” wrote Mr Yin. As well as renovating some existing onsite hotels, Genting Singapore is working on its SGD6.8 billion Resorts World Sentosa expansion, known as RWS 2.0. It includes two new luxury hotels with 700 rooms, additional attractions at Universal Studios Singapore, and new shopping, dining and waterfront facilities, with completion of the fresh facilities due progressively through to 2030. In a September note, S&P Global Ratings said Resorts World Sentosa faced competitive challenges relative to its duopoly rival Marina Bay Sands, run by a unit of Las Vegas Sands Corp. The latter resort had a more central location in Singapore, and was close to other international hotels, said the ratings house.