Macau’s observed premium-mass wager down 45pct y-o-y in September: Citi

Macau’s premium-mass casino segment had in September what Citigroup described as one of its weakest monthly table surveys in recent history, with total observed wager falling 45 percent year-on-year. The banking group’s analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau said in a Sunday memo that total premium-mass wager seen in their September survey stood at HKD6.8 million (US$866,785), compared with HKD12.3 million a year earlier. The number of premium-mass players observed declined 20 percent year-on-year, to 401. That implied an average wager per player of HKD16,958, down circa 31 percent from HKD24,550 in September 2025, according to Citi. The latest findings represented a sharp reversal from August, when Citi’s survey showed total premium-mass wager observed rising 7 percent year-on-year, to HKD14.3 million, despite the number of players declining by 16 percent. Average wager per player had increased 27 percent year-on-year in August. Citi said casino floors during its latest survey, conducted last Friday, were generally quieter than three months earlier, when the FIFA World Cup 2026 football tournament had just started.“The September 2026 Macau table survey results were among the worst in recent history,” wrote the Citi analysts. But they cautioned: “We cannot firmly conclude whether the weak results are a function of players lowered willingness to spend or the unfavourable timing of our survey.” They noted that the survey was conducted one week before the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday and two weeks before the National Day “Golden Week” holiday period, starting on October 1. Citi drew a comparison with September 2024, when investor sentiment towards Macau had weakened following a disappointing monthly gross gaming revenue (GGR) performance. Nonetheless, gaming revenue had rebounded strongly in October 2024, as some customers postponed visits to coincide with concerts and the autumn Golden Week holiday break. Citi lowered its September 2026 Macau casino GGR forecast to MOP18.0 billion (US$2.23 billion), from MOP19.0 billion previously. The revised estimate would imply that third-quarter Macau GGR would fall 4-percent year-on-year. In Sunday’s memo, Citi said it identified 14 so-called “whales” – players wagering HKD100,000 or more – during its September survey. That was 17 fewer than in August and 13 fewer than in September last year. The highest wager observed was HKD300,000 at the Chairman’s Club at Wynn Palace, a property operated by Wynn Macau Ltd. Citi also observed a player wagering HKD220,000 at the Horizon Room at StarWorld Hotel, run by Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd; and another betting HKD130,000 at the Signature Club at Studio City, operated by Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd. Galaxy Entertainment ranked first in Citi’s September premium-mass survey, with a 26-percent share of total wager observed, up from 20 percent a year earlier. MGM China Holdings Ltd ranked second, accounting for 24 percent of observed premium-mass wager, compared with 9 percent in September 2025. Citi said it encountered five whales across MGM China’s two Macau casinos, the highest number among the six operators. Citi also noted several changes to Macau casino floors. The brokerage said Crystal Palace phase two at Casino Lisboa, in downtown Macau, had recently opened, with about 30 baccarat tables and “a few traditional games” including sic bo and pai gow. The analysts also observed that building work appeared to have started for The Enclave at Wynn Palace, due to go up on currently-vacant land near the Cotai property’s south lobby. U.S. parent group Wynn Resorts Ltd said in recent commentary that construction was likely to begin before the end of 2026, on the US$950-million, 432-suite hotel tower.