Macau’s GDP growth further slowed in 3Q amid weaker gaming performance: govt

Macau’s gross domestic product (GDP) expansion in the three months to September 30 slowed sequentially, amid the contraction of “exports of gaming services” in the period. That is according to a Friday announcement of preliminary economic data made by the city’s Statistics and Census Service. Third-quarter GDP grew 0.1 percent year-on-year in real terms, to MOP106.06 billion (US$13.13 billion). Judged sequentially, it was a slowing from the 0.3 percent growth seen in the second quarter, and the 7.1 percent expansion in the first quarter. The statistics service noted regarding the three months to September 30: “Exports of gaming services decreased by 4.8 percent year-on-year as gross revenue from games of chance experienced a short-term adjustment due to external environmental factors.” September had marked the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year decline in Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue, show other government data. The statistics service nonetheless noted that in the third quarter, “exports of other tourism services increased by 6.6 percent year-on-year, attributable to a rise in visitor numbers amid the summer peak travel season and tourism promotion initiatives”. That had helped to offset weakness in export of gaming services. There had also been a 17.2-percent expansion in gross fixed capital formation amid “accelerated progress of public and private construction projects”, said the statistics service. For the first three quarters of this year, Macau’s GDP grew by 2.9 percent year-on-year in real terms, to MOP316.13 billion. The economic growth has been driven by improvement in the tourism trade in the period, plus a 4.6-percent growth in gross fixed capital formation, and a 2.8-percent expansion in private consumption expenditure. “Exports of services logged a year-on-year growth of 3.4 percent in the first three quarters, driven by rising visitor arrivals on account of government efforts to boost visitation and a succession of large-scale themed events,” said the statistics service. Gaming and tourism services in Macau are included in exports when calculating the city’s GDP, in order to reflect spending by tourists in the city’s casinos and other tourism-focused businesses. Macau’s ongoing economic reliance on the casino industry and tourism from the Chinese mainland, tended to subject the city and its fiscal-reserve position to “external shocks and cyclical volatility”, said the International Monetary Authority (IMF) in a consultation paper at the end of September. The IMF report identified gaming-sector competition as a downside risk to Macau’s economic outlook, alongside a potential economic slowdown in mainland China, renewed trade tensions, and global financial market volatility. The IMF forecast Macau’s real GDP growth year-on-year to “moderate to 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.1 percent in 2027, from 4.7 percent in 2025, reflecting external headwinds”.