Canada First Nation launches first-ever indigenous prediction markets framework

A First Nation community in New Brunswick, Canada has become the latest jurisdiction to set up its own prediction markets regulations, perhaps taking a cue from Gibraltar over in Europe. The Tobique First Nation, which has a population of less than 3,000 community members according to a 2025 census, has its own independent gambling regulator – the Tobique Gaming Commission (TGC). Established with the Tobique Gaming Act of 2023 and built upon the nation’s inherent right to self-govern, the regulator is a sovereign authority that operates outside of Canada’s provincial and federal gambling legislation. Through its self-governance powers, Tobiuqe has now also enacted its Prediction Markets Act and established the Tobique Prediction Market Authority, which will fulfil its functions as a separate entity from the TGC that solely governs relevant permit holders. “Pursuant to their rights of self-government, the new statute has been duly enacted with the hope of promoting and preserving the reputation of the Tobique First Nation as an internationally credible jurisdiction for regulated Prediction Markets,” the First Nation added. What’s more, it has selected CL Specialist Projects Limited as its principal advisory partner regarding global market and business developments, with Cliff Lewin, Director of CL Ltd, as the primary advisory contact. This news is admittedly very different from what is generally covered about prediction markets, as Tobiuq is essentially the first and only indigenous sovereign government to launch a dedicated prediction markets legislation not only in Canada, but across the entirety of North America. The Tobique Prediction Markets Act bypasses Canadian federal and provincial legislation, which has historically placed heavy restrictions on short-term binary options, which while not explicitly banning prediction markets have forced them into a grey area of operations. It will certainly be interesting to see whether Tobique will set a precedent for other First Nations to follow, where states-within-the-state move to set up their own prediction market frameworks in jurisdictions with an indigenous population – even more so when it comes to states that have explicitly banned prediction markets.