VEGAS BETTING REPORT: NFL Week 4 Underdogs Deliver Big Day for Sportsbooks

According to Las Vegas traders, the main storyline in Week 4 of the National Football League (NFL) was the underdogs’ performance. New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye led his team to an upset win over the Bills in Buffalo yesterday, making for an excellent day for sportsbooks. (Image: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) Yesterday’s (Oct. 4) underdogs finished 8-4-2 against the spread (ATS), with five outright upsets, according to OddsTrader. Patriots Shock Bills Bettors A developing betting story is the Las Vegas Raiders, now 4-0 ATS. The Raiders were 5-point underdogs at BetMGM going into their game at Allegiant Stadium against the Kansas City Chiefs and lost 30-27. Of all those upsets, the most telling was the New England Patriots, who, just one week earlier, lost 35-6 to the Jacksonville Jaguars, raising questions about quarterback Drake Maye (who fumbled twice, threw two interceptions, and was pulled in the fourth quarter). Yesterday (Oct. 4) was a different story, as the Patriots pulled into Buffalo’s shiny new Highmark Stadium to take on the 3-0 Bills and their vaunted offense. The Patriots won 29-26. Maye finished 22/37, throwing for 269 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. Maye had a 97.7 passer rating (RTG) at ESPN, which is good by NFL standards. However, his total quarterback rating (QBR) was 91.0, which is elite. QBR captures things that passing rating doesn’t, measuring a quarterback’s overall contribution to winning. Maye ran for 54 yards on eight carries, taking only one sack. Sportsbooks Welcome Buffalo Upset “A positive day for the book,” said Christian Cipollini, senior trading manager at BetMGM. We heard from Cipollini while the Sunday (Oct. 4) night game between the Carolina Panthers and the Detroit Lions was being played; the Panthers ultimately won 32-26, another upset (Carolina was a three-point underdog going in). Detroit -3 took 80% of BetMGM’s handle as of Friday. “The Titans and the Dolphins both covering was helpful and the Bills losing broke up many of the common big favorite parlay bets,” he added. Bettors got off to a strong start with a 30-13 Indianapolis Colts win, -225 moneyline favorites in their London game against the Washington Commanders. Caesars Sees Biggest Result “The biggest result for the book came in Buffalo,” said Joey Feazel, head of football, Caesars Sportsbook. “In quite the dose of irony, the Patriots became the first team to hand the Bills a loss in their new stadium, taking down one of the most heavily bet parlay teams of the day. That upset circled the wagons for the book for the morning games.” Biggest wins for bettors on the day came from Ravens’ running back Derrick Henry’s first touchdown against his former team, the Tennessee Titans, while Bills quarterback Josh Allen and running back James Cook rounded out the three most popular end zone magnets, getting bettors ahead early and big, said Feazel. The L.A. Rams’ comeback win (24-20 over the Philadelphia Eagles), the New York Giants’ 36-24 win over the Arizona Cardinals, and the Chicago Bears’ 23-12 win over the New York Jets were wins for bettors. Eagles, Texans Futures Drift Besides the Bills’ loss, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ 22-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals and the Dallas Cowboys’ 34-30 win over the Houston Texans, a must-win for the Cowboys, were good results for the book. “That made for a rare week where the book was happy to be a Cowboys fan,” said Feazel. “The biggest drifters in the Super Bowl market were the Eagles, who moved from 16/1 to 22/1, and the Texans, who slid from 40/1 to 66/1 after disappointing performances. As is often the case, their franchise quarterbacks followed suit in the MVP market, with their odds lengthening alongside their teams’ championship prospects.” According to BetMGM, for tonight’s Atlanta Falcons-Saints game in New Orleans, Saints’ -120 moneyline is getting 49% of bets, 39% of handle, with the Falcons at +105. Oddsmakers and bettors expect a close but high-scoring game. The total is 47.5, with 66% of bets and 80% of the handle on the over. The post VEGAS BETTING REPORT: NFL Week 4 Underdogs Deliver Big Day for Sportsbooks appeared first on Casino.org.