Two $92,500 Kalshi Trades Target Cincinnati’s NCAA Tournament Qualification

Two unusually large trades on Kalshi have put the Cincinnati Bearcats in the spotlight of the growing US prediction market industry, with $185,000 committed to contracts predicting the team will qualify for the 2027 NCAA men’s basketball tournament. 19 Minutes Apart Both trades took place on Wednesday afternoon, November 4, each of them involving the purchase of 125,000 YES contracts at 74 cents apiece. Each block was worth $92,500, giving the two trades a combined value of almost $200,000. If Cincinnati is the one to qualify for the expanded form of the tournament, the contracts will pay out a grand total of $250,000. If the Bearcats don’t make the field, the money committed to the YES positions will be lost. According to market surveillance firm BETINT, which initially identified the transactions, the trades were completed 19 minutes apart, at 2:44 pm and 3:03 pm ET, respectively. Together, they pushed open interest in Cincinnati’s contract to 250,065. The size of the positions stands out against the market’s previous activity. Before Wednesday, only 39 Cincinnati contracts traded over six weeks. The two large transactions now account for approximately 95% of the total trading volume across Kalshi’s 126-team market. The trades were also executed below the price available in the regular market, with Cincinnati’s last regular trade before the transactions recorded at 82 cents, and subsequent smaller trades ranging between 79 and 82 cents. The market, called Round of 76 Qualifiers, opened on September 22 following the NCAA’s decision to expand both the men’s and women’s basketball tournaments from 68 to 76 teams. Cincinnati kickstarted its regular season with a 79-53 victory against the American University. The Bearcats finished last season with an 18-15 record and missed the NCAA tournament. By Thursday morning, Kalshi’s market pricing implied an 82% chance that Cincinnati would qualify. Who Is Behind the Trades? The identity of the traders is not known, as Kalshi does not publicly disclose the parties involved in block transactions, which are negotiated outside the exchange and subsequently reported to the platform. These trades are only available to financial institutions, as well as investment funds, regulated insurers, and entities whose assets go over the $10 million mark, thus allowing the execution of large positions without having to significantly move public market prices. BETINT noted that the identical size, price, and timing pattern could indicate one buyer splitting an order or a broker executing transactions for two clients. However, there is no confirmed connection between the trades and a particular individual, organization or financial arrangement. The transactions add to a growing list of large sports-related positions on Kalshi. BETINT has tracked nine sports block trades since July 27, totaling approximately $1.38 million on the purchased side. One previous example involves five large positions on LSU football, which offered a $3 million payout in total provided the team had won the national championship. The respective trades were linked to a third party that reportedly helped manage potential coaching bonus exposure. In Cincinnati’s case, no such arrangement has been identified. Head coach Jerrod Calhoun‘s reported bonus for reaching the NCAA tournament is $100,000, considerably below the potential $250,000 payout. No wrongdoing has been alleged, and the purpose of the transactions remains unclear.