Ministry of Finance confirms lack of studies on the impacts of banning ‘bets’

On September 25, 2026, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva signed Provisional Measure No. 1,394/2026, the Bets MP, which prohibited the offering, operation, exploitation, and advertising of sports betting and online games in Brazil. However, before that, on September 20, a request through the Access to Information Law (LAI) asked the Ministry of Finance, including its secretariats, to verify the existence of impact assessments regarding a potential change in the regulation of online betting in Brazil. According to the document obtained by the iGaming Brazil portal, the request questions whether any study, technical note, opinion, impact analysis, economic evaluation, regulatory evaluation, or other document intended to analyze, in whole or in part, the impacts resulting from: a) a total ban on the exploitation of fixed-odds betting in Brazil; b) the prohibition or restriction of the online gaming modality, including online casino games, currently exploited within the scope of fixed-odds betting; c) the total ban or substantial restriction of advertising, publicity, and marketing. The response was formalized on September 24, one day before the signing of the MP, the same date on the Ministry of Justice placed all documentation used to structure the measure under a five-year secrecy period. “No studies were identified” According to the response from the Ministry of Finance, after consulting technical units, no studies, technical notes, opinions, reports, or other documents specifically intended to evaluate the economic, fiscal, regulatory, or social impacts resulting from a potential ban, total or partial, on the exploitation of fixed-odds betting, online games, or advertising related to the sector were identified. According to the note, the “Secretariat of Prizes and Betting exercises its powers based on the current legal regime, especially Laws No. 13,756 of December 12, 2018, and No. 14,790 of December 29, 2023, which authorize and discipline the exploitation of the fixed-odds betting lottery modality. In this context, its administrative actions are directed toward the regulation, authorization, monitoring, inspection, and application of sanctions in the legally established market, and it has not been assigned specific competence to evaluate, in a broad and prospective manner, the impacts resulting from the eventual prohibition of this activity.” The statement continues: “it is further noted that no administrative unit was identified within the federal Public Administration formally tasked, by specific legal or regulatory act, with preparing a comprehensive assessment of the economic, fiscal, regulatory, and social impacts resulting from a potential ban on the exploitation of fixed-odds betting, online games, or related advertising.” The ministry claimed that the analysis of a matter of this magnitude, due to its cross-cutting nature, would require the participation of different bodies and administrative units, in addition to the prior definition of the regulatory scenario, the scope of the eventual prohibition, and the methodological premises to be considered. “Formulating these estimates would require the construction of hypothetical scenarios” However, the ministry reinforced that no previously prepared estimates were located regarding the eventual effects of this measure on Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) of the regulated market; tax collection and other public revenues resulting from the activity; resources destined for sports financing; advertising, sponsorship, and financial support contracts for sports entities, competitions, and organizations; the possible migration of bettors to unauthorized operators; consumer protection; or public health, especially regarding risks associated with problem gambling and gambling disorder. Furthermore, the Ministry of Finance also claimed that formulating these estimates would require the construction of hypothetical scenarios, the definition of economic and behavioral premises, and the execution of multidisciplinary technical studies that do not yet exist. In other words, the results would depend, among other factors, on the material and temporal scope of the eventual prohibition, the modalities affected, the treatment given to advertising and sponsorship, the inspection capacity, the mechanisms for blocking the illegal market, and possible changes in consumer behavior. “Thus, the impossibility of fulfilling the request does not stem from the classification of information as secret or from a restriction on access to an existing document, but from the non-existence, within this Secretariat, of the assessments, estimates, and documents specifically described by the requester, as well as the absence of a federal administrative unit formally tasked with preparing a comprehensive study with the presented scope. In view of the above, the requester is informed that the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting does not possess studies, documents, or estimates specifically intended to evaluate the economic, fiscal, regulatory, sporting, social, consumer-related, and public health impacts resulting from a potential ban on the exploitation of fixed-odds betting, online games, including online casinos, or related advertising, under the terms of art. 7, item II, of Law No. 12,527 of 2011,” the response note concluded. O post Ministry of Finance confirms lack of studies on the impacts of banning ‘bets’ apareceu primeiro em iGaming Brazil.