Macau still able to meet US$29.2bln GGR target for 2026: CreditSights

Macau can still achieve the government’s MOP236-billion (US$29.2-billion) casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) target for 2026, says CreditSights. The institution said in a Monday report that it was “too early to conclude” that recent softer monthly figures reflect structural weakness in the market. The research firm said in the memo that Macau would require average monthly GGR of MOP16.3 billion in the fourth quarter to reach the full-year target. October’s revenue figure would, however, provide a “clearer” indication of the outlook. “For now, we still see room for Macau to reach its 2026 GGR target,” wrote analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey. Macau generated nearly MOP187.12 billion in casino GGR in the first nine months of 2026, up 3.2 percent year-on-year, showed official data. That was equivalent to 79 percent of the government’s annual forecast. September was the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year GGR decline. Average monthly revenue during the nine months to September 30 was approximately MOP20.8 billion, above the MOP19.7 billion monthly average implied by the full-year target, noted the research firm. CreditSights cautioned against interpreting the recent run of softer monthly results as evidence of a lasting change in demand. “At this juncture, we think it may be too early to conclude that the soft data prints in recent months are more structural than cyclical,” the analysts stated. They argued that the year-on-year declines in June and July should be excluded from such an assessment, as those months were mainly affected by the FIFA World Cup football tournament. The approximately 1-percent year-on-year declines in August and September remained relatively marginal, the institution added. Macau’s Chief Executive, Sam Hou Fai, said earlier this month that the government had no plans to adjust its full-year GGR forecast. He also identified October as an important gauge of whether stronger visitor traffic would translate into higher gaming revenue. CreditSights said robust visitor volumes during the October Golden Week holiday season could support a better monthly GGR performance. It also noted Sands China Ltd management’s optimism regarding a seasonally stronger fourth quarter, supported by the Golden Week break and the NBA China Games held in Macau. That assessment follows comments from Patrick Dumont, chairman and chief executive of Sands China’s parent Las Vegas Sands Corp, describing the group’s third-quarter performance as “aberrational” amid softer high-end play. Sands China chief executive and president Grant Chum Kwan Lock said underlying demand remained solid, citing growth in patron numbers and property visits. CreditSights nevertheless highlighted differences between Macau’s gaming segments. Third-quarter VIP GGR was broadly flat year-on-year, compared with a 5.2-percent decline in mass-market GGR. Mass gaming accounted for 71.9 percent of the quarter’s total. The report also noted that September visitor arrivals rose approximately 16 percent year-on-year, while GGR per visitor fell 15 percent from a year earlier, to MOP5,616. CreditSights expects overall GGR performance to remain largely driven by visitor volumes, with a meaningful recovery in gaming spending per capita still challenging to achieve. It cautioned that GGR per visitor is only a proxy for gaming expenditure, rather than a measure of actual spending by individual gamblers.