Macau daily GGR at US$90mln Oct 5 to 11, consensus on full month challenging: UBS

Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) averaged approximately MOP729 million (US$90.2 million) a day from October 5 to October 11, despite recent softness in high-end play, suggested banking institution UBS, citing its own channel checks. The daily revenue run-rate moderated from approximately MOP1.0 billion during the first four days of the October Golden Week holiday period, but remained “well above” the circa MOP602-million daily average UBS cited for September. Macau casino GGR fell 1.2 percent year-on-year in September. The latest figures took Macau’s estimated average daily GGR for the first 11 days of October to approximately MOP836 million. That compared with about MOP804 million a day during the first 12 days of October last year. UBS noted that the 2025 comparison period had been disrupted by a typhoon on October 5 and the Mid-Autumn Festival on October 6, creating a low comparison base. The institution said the latest month-to-date performance had nonetheless been achieved “in spite of concerns surrounding tax clawback from offshore trusts”. UBS had previously linked September’s weakness in premium gaming segments to the implementation of Chinese individual income tax rules governing offshore trusts, as reported by GGRAsia. “Between the segments, mass daily revenue run-rate was up 35 to 38 percent month-on-month, while VIP volume daily run-rate was up 40 to 45 percent month-on-month, at VIP hold of 3.1 to 3.4 percent,” the bank stated. According to UBS, sell-side consensus pointed to an average daily GGR of approximately MOP777 million for the whole of October, broadly flat year-on-year. That implied a “GGR run-rate of circa MOP744 million a day for the remaining 20 days of the month, which looks challenging,” the institution said.