Macau casino promotional spend to remain elevated in 2H: CBRE

Promotional spending by Macau casino operators is likely to remain elevated in the second half of 2026 amid intense competition for higher-spending customers, says CBRE Equity Research. The Macau market “competitive environment remains intense, particularly for higher-spending premium customers,” wrote analysts John DeCree and Max Marsh in a report issued on Wednesday. “In the second quarter of 2026, total gaming commissions as a percentage of aggregate Macau GGR [gross gaming revenue] hit a new peak of 20.9 percent,” they noted. “However, this was partially due to low VIP hold that weighed on GGR.” The brokerage noted that market-wide VIP hold averaged 2.6 percent in the second quarter, about 90 basis points below the trailing 12-month average of 3.5 percent. In absolute terms, commissions declined sequentially to US$1.57 billion in the second quarter, from a peak of US$1.65 billion in the first three months of the year, according to CBRE’s estimates. The institution expects commission spending to pick up again during the remainder of the year. Its forecasts – shown in the report – point to market-wide commissions of nearly US$1.62 billion in the third quarter, and US$1.73 billion in the three months to December 31. The respective amounts would represent 20.5 percent and 20.6 percent of GGR. “We continue to see an elevated promotional environment in Macau and expect aggregate commission dollars to increase in the second half of 2026,” CBRE stated. It added that commission spending as a percentage of GGR should see “some stabilisation”, assuming there is no significant volatility in casino hold. The institution also said Macau concessionaires continued to face pressure on margins from “elevated customer reinvestment levels” and higher operating expenses amid what it described as a “hyper-competitive operating environment”. CBRE’s note follows a lacklustre August, when market-wide GGR declined 1.2 percent year-on-year to MOP21.89 billion, according to data from Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. “Looking ahead to September, we expect a return to mid-single-digit growth against a relative easier comparison considering the significant typhoon activity last year,” the analysts stated.