Macau casino GGR tipped for September rebound after soft August: analysts

Macau’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to return to year-on-year growth in September, helped by an easier comparison with the prior-year period, according to separate forecasts from JP Morgan Securities and Seaport Research Partners. JP Morgan expects September GGR of MOP19.64 billion (US$2.43 billion), up circa 7 percent year-on-year and equivalent to 89 percent of the September 2019 level. Seaport is more bullish, forecasting approximately MOP20.12 billion, representing 10-percent growth from a year earlier. The projections follow a lacklustre August, when market-wide GGR declined 1.2 percent year-on-year to MOP21.89 billion, according to data from Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. August GGR nevertheless rose 8.1 percent sequentially from July, when casino revenue had fallen 8.4 percent from a year earlier. JP Morgan analysts Daniel Politzer, Samuel Nielsen and Michael Hirsh said August’s sequential improvement was better than the typical seasonal increase of about 4 percent, but argued this “more so reflects a soft July than a strong August”. The institution estimated that VIP GGR fell 5 percent year-on-year in August, while mass-market and slot revenue was approximately flat. It also noted that GGR pacing had slowed over the course of the month. “While we don’t view results as bad, there’s also not much to get excited about,” stated the JP Morgan team. The brokerage said September faces an easier year-on-year comparison, in part because the corresponding month in 2025 was affected by a typhoon. September 2025 GGR was MOP18.29 billion, up 6 percent year-on-year but down 17 percent sequentially. Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky similarly described August GGR as “weaker than initially expected”, saying there was little evidence of pent-up demand following the FIFA World Cup, which had weighed on customer demand – particularly premium-mass and VIP business – and agent activity during June and July. The football tournament ran from June 11 to July 19. Seaport expects September’s average daily GGR to reach MOP671 million, down 5.1 percent sequentially from MOP706 million in August. The institution noted that September is “typically” a weak month and can be affected by storms. The brokerage expects September’s 10-percent year-on-year growth despite the anticipated sequential decline because of the easier comparison base. For the third quarter, both institutions expect Macau casino GGR to decline slightly year-on-year. JP Morgan forecasts a 1-percent contraction to MOP61.80 billion, while Seaport expects a 0.5-percent decline. JP Morgan maintained its full-year 2026 Macau GGR forecast at MOP254.28 billion, representing 3-percent growth year-on-year.