Macau 3Q industry-wide EBITDA likely down 11 percent year-on-year: Seaport

Seaport Research Partners expects earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the city’s casino industry to have fallen by 10.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter. Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky said in a memo issued on Monday that the industry-wide EBITDA margin for the July to September 2026 period would in likelihood show a year-on-year decline of nearly 180 basis points, although it was potentially up by 50 basis points quarter-on-quarter. “The fourth quarter is estimated to face continued headwinds, but not as severe as in the third quarter, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) estimated to fall 0.7 percent year-on-year with EBITDA dropping 3.4 percent”, Mr Umansky wrote. He added: “Market share gains, operational expense control, and optimised player reinvestment and commission strategies are now critically important differentiators (in a temporarily slower-growth market)”. Macau’s full third-quarter GGR was slightly above MOP60.21 billion (US$7.44 billion), a 1.3-percent decline sequentially on the second quarter’s total of MOP61.03 billion. The figure was down 3.8 percent year-on-year. Macau’s third-quarter GGR in the mass-market segment – including slot machine play – stood at nearly MOP43.31 billion, down 5.2 percent on the prior-year period, according to data released on Friday by the city’s casino regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. Mass play accounted for 71.9 percent of all casino GGR for the quarter, versus 73.0 percent in the third quarter of 2025. Seaport stated in its Monday memo – which previewed third-quarter results for Macau’s six concessionaires – that operators Sands China Ltd and Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd were likely to have shown the strongest year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter share gains for the period, followed by MGM China Holdings Ltd. The institution said it expected Wynn Macau Ltd, Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd, and SJM Holdings Ltd, all to show losses in share for the July to September period: as measured sequentially and year-on-year. “In the third quarter in Macau, we estimate only Galaxy Entertainment to show year-on-year property EBITDA gains, with MGM China largely flat, and others showing year-on-year declines”, Mr Umansky wrote. He added that the Singapore casino market was also likely to have shown “considerable softness” in the third quarter, “partly on [the] same demand weakness as seen in Macau”, with both markets impacted by “weaker high-end play” during the period, as well as by a decline in play linked to the FIFA World Cup football tournament that ended in mid-July. Singapore has a casino duopoly consisting of Marina Bay Sands, run by a unit of Las Vegas Sands Corp – parent of Sands China – and Resorts World Sentosa, run by Genting Singapore Ltd.