JPMorgan: Wynn UAE Casino Concerns Exaggerated

Amid the war in Iran, investors expressed skepticism regarding the fate of Wynn Resorts’ (NASDAQ: WYNN) Wynn Al Marjan Island casino hotel project in Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates (UAE), but at least one analyst believes the reality is different from what’s being portrayed by the media. JPMorgan believes things are getting back to normal in the UAE and that’s positive for Wynn Resorts. (Image: Shutterstock) Immediately following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February, Iran struck assets in the UAE, forcing Wynn to pause construction at the venue, but the $5.7 billion Wynn Al Marjan Island remains on pace to open in September 2027. JPMorgan analysts met with Wynn executives at the Global Gaming Expo (G2E) in Las Vegas earlier this week, coming away with a constructive tone on the UAE project. “Conditions in the region are a lot more ‘back to normal’ than would be indicated in the press, with lodging demand/revenue per available room in the UAE pacing -25 percent year-on-year during September, versus -50 percent [year-on-year] earlier in the year,” they wrote in a report. That jibes with recent data from the Ras Al Khaimah Tourism Development Authority (RAKTDA), which noted the emirate attracted 670,000 visitors in the first half of this year despite the war in Iran. UAE Casino Will Still Be Long-Term Contributor for Wynn Some analysts previously argued that the UAE-related sell-off experienced by Wynn shares was overdone while others have noted the investment community continues assigning little to no value for the first casino resort in Middle East history to Wynn’s share price. The JPMorgan analysts note that Wynn “remains confident in achieving its base-to-high case steady-state assumptions,” implying that over the long term, the UAE could become one of the most valuable gaming markets in the world. Previous estimates suggest the UAE could be a $3 billion to $5 billion market in terms of annual gross gaming revenue (GGR) assuming other integrated resorts are added following the debut of Wynn Al Marjan Island. On a related note, the JPMorgan analysts point out that Wynn believes it’s possible that the conflict in Iran could extend the monopoly period held by Wynn Al Marjan Island because UAE authorities may not be in a rush to approve another gaming venue due to the war. Macau Likely the Culprit Shares of Wynn are off more than 36% year-to-date and Macau softness more than the war in Iran is the likely culprit in that scenario. September marked the fourth consecutive month of GGR declines in the Chinese territory, which is Wynn’s largest operating market. While Macau is currently in a lull, JPMorgan sees potential benefits to Wynn via the Enclave project at Wynn Palace on the Cotai Strip. That project, which includes a $950 million second hotel tower, could juice earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) over the long haul. That addition could add approximately “$400 million of GGR and a mid/high-teens return, translating to approximately $150 million to $175 million of incremental EBITDA,” according to the JPMorgan analysts. The post JPMorgan: Wynn UAE Casino Concerns Exaggerated appeared first on Casino.org.