JPMorgan: Wynn Stock Hamstrung by Macau, UAE Concerns

After making a series of 52-week lows in recent weeks, Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) stock is off 29.23% year-to-date due to a confluence of factors. JPMorgan says Macau and the war in Iran are drags on Wynn stock. (Image: Getty) In a recent report to clients, JPMorgan analyst Daniel Politzer notes that in Macau, which is Wynn’s largest market by earnings and revenue, “post-World Cup demand rebound appears short-lived.” That view is supported by data indicating that in August, gross gaming revenue (GGR) in the Chinese casino enclave slumped 1.2%. “Macau industry GGR has been softer than expected post World Cup,” observes the analyst. The World Cup, which ended in July, was widely seen as a drag on Macau GGR in June and July, prompting some analysts and investors to speculate that the end of the tournament would bring a return in vibrancy to the world’s largest casino market. That hasn’t materialized and some sell-side firms are noting that the softness seen in August carried over into September. Iran War Still Problematic for Wynn Stock Earlier this year, Wynn told investors that the war in Iran would cause a “modest delay” to construction at Wynn Al Marjan Island, the operator’s $5.1 billion casino resort in Ras Al Khaimah, United Arab Emirates (UAE). More recently, the company said that venue will open in mid- to late-2027 and while that appeared to allay investor concerns, those good vibes were also fleeting. Politzer notes that Wynn’s UAE effort is very much on the mind of market participants, who are skittish about the ongoing conflict in Iran. The analyst said investors believe that due to the war in Iran, there’s “significant risk” around Wynn Al Marjan Island’s timeline for opening, how the venue will perform when it comes online and potential turbulence in its ramp-up process. Echoing a familiar refrain among some on the sell-side, the JPMorgan analyst points out that Wynn stock assigns ““little/no equity value” for the UAE project. That could be a sign that investors are more focused on the war than how the UAE casino could affect Wynn’s share price over multi-year timeframes. Wynn Stock Not Dirt Cheap While Wynn stock is off nearly 17% over the past month, implying it should be deeply discounted on valuation, it’s not overtly cheap. Politzer says the gaming equity 9.7x estimated 2027 enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EV/EBITDA). That’s only slightly below the three-year average of 9.8x. Macau remains an overhang for the stock. In a report out earlier this week, CLSA said it expects Macau GGR to increase by just 2.4% next year. “Although there was notable recovery in Macau’s GGR and visitations after the World Cup, we do not think macros are supportive enough to drive incremental growth from the current revenue run-rate, despite cyclical factors such as low base effect in summer 2026 (due to World Cup) and possible mean reversion in VIP win rates,” according to the research firm. The post JPMorgan: Wynn Stock Hamstrung by Macau, UAE Concerns appeared first on Casino.org.