IBJR warns that a ban does not eliminate illegal gambling and undermines oversight mechanisms

The Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR) and its members consider that a total ban on fixed-odds betting represents a disruption of the regulatory framework established by the Brazilian State itself and jeopardizes an economic activity that, since January 2025, has been operating under authorization, oversight, and rules defined by the Federal Government. Companies made investments, hired professionals, developed systems, entered into contracts, and paid concession fees to meet the requirements established by the regulations. Shutting down this market shortly after its implementation will have significant economic and legal repercussions and will undermine the progress made in formalizing and regulating an activity that already existed in the country. Prohibition does not put an end to illegal gambling. The ban also does not eliminate existing demand. A study by LCA Consultores, using data from the Locomotiva Institute, estimates that between 38% and 44% of online bets still take place on illicit platforms—a lower percentage than the 41% to 51% estimated for 2025. According to the consultancy, the discontinuation of the legal offering tends to shift a significant portion of this demand to illegal operators, who are not subject to the same obligations as authorized companies. Furthermore, for consumers who shift to the illegal market, the measure eliminates access to protection mechanisms provided within the regulated environment—such as identification, facial recognition, limits, transaction monitoring, self-exclusion, and Responsible Gaming tools. Thus, by removing the activity from the regulated environment, the State also loses tools for the oversight and tracking of financial transactions. IBJR warns of economic and fiscal effects The economic and fiscal impacts are equally significant. LCA estimates that, between 2027 and 2030, a ban on all fixed-odds betting could jeopardize between R$ 58 billion and R$ 73 billion in tax revenue, assuming scenarios where 80% to 100% of the demand currently met by the regulated market shifts to illegal operators. A portion of this revenue is allocated by law to areas such as public security, education, social security, tourism, and sports. The interruption of activity also affects investments, contracts, jobs, suppliers, sponsorships, and other economic relationships established following the regulation. There is also an impact on legal certainty. Authorized companies paid R$ 30 million in licensing fees—valid for five years—and structured their operations based on authorizations granted by the public authorities themselves. Considering only the concession fees paid, LCA estimates that the legal risk for the Federal Government starts at a minimum of R$ 2.55 billion, excluding investments, contracts, and other obligations assumed by the companies. Reversing the model shortly after the granting of authorizations increases legal uncertainty and could lead to legal disputes. According to the IBJR and its members, the way to address issues associated with betting is to strengthen regulation, oversight, and responsible gambling policies, as well as to intensify the fight against the underground market. Finally, the entity points out that maintaining a regulated environment enables the State to oversee the activity, impose obligations on operators, and uphold consumer protection mechanisms. O post IBJR warns that a ban does not eliminate illegal gambling and undermines oversight mechanisms apareceu primeiro em iGaming Brazil.