Election Bets Face Rising Opposition by US Citizens

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll revealed that most Americans oppose using prediction markets to wager on US elections, military operations, and government decisions. This trend may be problematic for an industry aiming to broaden its public appeal. It also suggests that commercial growth and success don’t mean Americans want every political decision turning into a wager. Americans Remain Apprehensive About Election Wagers The survey, conducted from September 30 to October 5, found that voters from across the political spectrum opposed election betting. Roughly 69% of Democrats and 61% of Republicans were firmly against. Meanwhile, 65% of respondents were against wagers on US military action, and 63% opposed contracts on government decisions. Only 8% supported military-related wagers, and 9% did not mind bets on government announcements. Bettors wagered hundreds of millions of dollars on event contracts during the 2024 presidential election, bringing political betting into the spotlight. Since then, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have expanded beyond election forecasts into a broad range of political, economic, and sporting events. Their rapid growth has caused fears of insider trading, market manipulation, and the misuse of confidential government information. The sector’s rapid expansion has also caused disputes over who should regulate prediction markets. Several state gambling regulators have challenged sports-related contracts, arguing that these products are indistinguishable from gambling and must be subject to state betting laws. Prediction platforms are fighting these challenges in court, arguing that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sole jurisdiction over the sector. Insider Trading and Security Breaches Remain Major Concerns As the legal battle over the future of prediction markets unfolds, the general public remains unconvinced. Many Americans feel uncomfortable putting a price on decisions that affect national security. This sentiment also extends to lawmakers, as many worry that government employees or political insiders could use confidential information to make lucrative trades or reveal sensitive developments through their market positions. An August Reuters investigation revealed that over 150 Polymarket International accounts may have abused insider knowledge on military matters to win trades. Combined with betting scandals relating to the US involvement in Venezuela and Iran, many experts are concerned that existing safeguards may not be enough to prevent abuse. Both Kalshi and Polymarket insist that they monitor suspicious activity, cooperate with authorities, and take action against offending accounts. For example, Kalshi banned former Republican Representative George Santos, who agreed to pay $35,000 to settle government allegations involving manipulative trading. Despite these efforts, recent polls suggest Americans are unsure if the sector can avoid manipulation.