2026 US Open Odds – Who Will Win at Flushing Meadows

2026 will see the 146th iteration of tennis’ US Open, which will get underway at the iconic Flushing Meadows venue on Sunday, August 23rd. Polymarket allows you to speculate on the Men’s and Women’s Singles Champion this year, with Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka the current frontrunners in these respective markets. Sabalenka will look to defend the title she won so impressively in 2025, while Sinner is keen to avenge his four-set loss to rival Carlos Alcaraz in last year’s Men’s Singles final. You can unlock significant value across these markets, which have generated over $15.3 million in cumulative volume since opening. Note: Our exclusive Polymarket promo code (CORG) will get you $20 after you sign up and deposit $10. Looking for other markets? Here’s a list of the best sports prediction markets. Men’s Singles Odds – Why the Market is More Competitive Than You Think At first glance, Sinner is the overwhelming favorite to win his second US Open title and sixth major overall at Flushing Meadows. He has won 90% of his matches on hard courts in 2026, for example, while longstanding rival Carlos Alcaraz has been laid low during a four-month injury hiatus. However, Sinner himself was forced to withdraw from the recent Cincinnati Open with a knee complaint. Alcaraz is also set to make his long-awaited return in New York, with Sinner’s price having dropped noticeably since the Spaniard’s announcement. As a result, there are a number of potential trades that may offer value ahead of the US Open Men’s Singles. These include: Jannik Sinner Odds – Still the Most Likely Winner With a High Potential Upside Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 36% · No 65% View full market & trade on Polymarket “Jannik Sinner” | “Yes” at 36¢ | 36% Chance Sinner has excelled without the challenge of Alcaraz, losing just twice in the Spaniard’s enforced absence. Overall, he has gone 44-3 so far in 2026, recording a win-rate of 93.6% and collecting his fifth major at SW19. The Italian is particularly effective on hard courts, where he has won 173 of 213 career matches (81.2%). However, his recent injury raises familiar concerns about Sinner’s fitness and conditioning. His vulnerability during best-of-five set games at Slams has also been evident through 2026, with Sinner losing to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open semis and exiting the French Open during the second round. This, combined with Alcaraz’s return, has driven Sinner’s “Yes” price down to 36¢ at the time of writing, from a peak of 59¢ on August 6th. However, this offers huge value and a high potential upside, while the price could extend beyond 60¢ if he reaches the last four. Each share will close at $1.00 if the market settles in Sinner’s favor, too. Did you know? Did you know? Our exclusive Polymarket promo code, CORG, will earn you a $20 trading bonus when you sign up to Polymarket and make a $10 deposit. Carlos Alcaraz Odds – The Defending Champion Returning From Injury Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 26% · No 75% View full market & trade on Polymarket “Carlos Alcaraz” | “Yes” at 26¢ | 26% Chance Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t played competitively since April 14th, when he defeated Otto Virtanen 6-4, 6-2 at the Barcelona Open. He has spent the subsequent four months dealing with a persistent right wrist injury, missing majors at Roland Garros and Wimbledon in the process. It will be interesting to see how the injury has impacted Alcaraz. The 23-year-old is known for his explosive shot-making and extreme wrist-snap, and it may take time for him to fully recover these attributes as he resumes his career. Given this and his lack of recent playing time, Alcaraz may find it hard to go all the way in New York and retain his title. However, a current “Yes” price of just 26¢ is favorable for a player of the Spaniard’s immense talent, and he’s capable of beating most players on the Tour without playing at his absolute best. Reaching the last eight could be enough to drive Alcaraz’s price into the 50¢ to 60¢ range, creating a reasonable exit point and potential return of up to 130.77%. Novak Djokovic – Still a Competitive Force Who’s Massively Underpriced Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 6% · No 94% View full market & trade on Polymarket “Novak Djokovic” | “Yes” at 6.3¢ | 6% Chance While Djokovic may be approaching the end of his career, the 39-year-old remains a major force at Slams. This is particularly true on hard courts, where the Serbian has won 82.5% of his career matches. He also maintains an incredible 95-15 (86.3%) record at Flushing Meadows since his debut. What’s more, Djokovic has reached the semi-finals in six of the last seven Slams since January 2025, including last year’s US Open. Crucially, he’s also expected to be seeded fifth in this year’s US Open. This means that he won’t face top seeds like Sinner, Alcaraz, or Alexander Zverev until the last eight at the earliest. Overall, Djokovic is incredibly underpriced at just 6.3¢, even if you don’t think he’ll go on to win and claim an elusive 25th major title. I’d recommend buying “Yes” shares at the current price, as this has the potential to increase up to 30¢ if the Serb reaches the last eight. This would provide a profitable and sensible exit point. Image: Matthew Stockman/Getty Images Women’s Single Odds – Exploring a More Open Prediction Market This market has narrowed since January, when Sabalenka was afforded a 51% chance of winning in New York after reaching the final of the 2026 Australian Open. She failed to progress beyond the quarterfinals at either the French Open or Wimbledon, however, while Sabalenka has only claimed one Grand Slam title since September 2024. In fact, the last seven Women’s Singles Slams have each produced a different winner, including Iga Świątek, Coco Gauff, and Mirra Andreeva. This has created a far more open market overall, so let’s take a closer look at the best value picks! Aryna Sabalenka – A Hard Court Powerhouse Who’s Underpriced Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 22% · No 79% View full market & trade on Polymarket “Aryna Sabalenka” | “Yes” at 23¢ | 22% Chance While Sabalenka may have struggled for consistency in recent times, she remains a dominant force on hard courts. All four of her career Slams have come on this surface type, including two at Flushing Meadows. Sabalenka hasn’t lost in New York since the 2023 final, where she was edged out in three sets by home favorite Coco Gauff (2–6, 6–3, 6–2). So, she’ll arrive at Flushing Meadows looking to win a third successive US Open, while she has won 90.0% of her hard court games in 2026 so far. Sabalenka “Yes” shares are clearly underpriced at 23¢, with traders arguably overreacting to the Belarusian’s poor run of recent form (including a fourth-round Wimbledon exit). This price fails to take into account her hard court dominance, however, so buy now and look to sell before or just after the last four matches. Iga Swiatek Odds – An Undervalued Pick with US Open Pedigree Will Iga Swiatek win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 17% · No 84% View full market & trade on Polymarket “Iga Swiatek” | “Yes” at 18¢ | 17% Chance Swiatek is always undervalued on hard courts, with most traders and tennis fans considering her to be a clay court specialist. However, she has claimed the US Open title previously (in 2022), while she retains a 24-6 (80.0%) win-rate at Flushing Meadows. Her hard court form has been excellent through 2026, too, with the 25-year-old having won 83.0% of her matches on the surface and lifted the National Bank Open title in Montreal earlier this month. Swiatek has reached the quarterfinals on her last two trips to New York, and repeating this achievement could see her price penetrate the 40¢ to 50¢ range. So, buying now could offer immense value, although I would recommend selling your position prior to the semi-finals. Naomi Osaka Odds – A Two-Time Winner Who Has Returned to Form Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 7% · No 93% View full market & trade on Polymarket “Naomi Osaka” | “Yes” at 7.5¢ | 7% Chance In terms of long shot picks, Naomi Osaka offers considerable value at a current price of 7.5¢. This has risen sharply from just 0.4¢ during the grass court season, which saw Osaka reach the last eight at SW19 for the first time and progress to the final of the Bad Homburg Open. This is the first final she has reached outside of hard court tournaments. She’ll certainly arrive in New York in excellent form, while her hard court pedigree is difficult to ignore. A two-time US Open winner in 2018 and 2020, she’s an outstanding striker of the ball and has a game that’s tailor-made for the fast and slick surfaces at Flushing Meadows. The challenge here is her current ranking of 13th, which means that she won’t be among the top seeds. As a result, she could face stars like Sabalenka and Świątek as early as the fourth round, so consider buying now and plotting an exit around this time. This could unlock a sale price of between 20¢ and 30¢. The Last Word – Making Your US Open Picks Markets of this type tend to offer huge value, with so many contract options and potential winners in both the Men’s and Women’s Singles. The size and competitiveness of the men’s and women’s fields create lower “Yes” prices on average, too. This enables you to lock in discounted prices and sell your positions profitably as the tournament progresses. The key here is to track your open positions and identify the optimal exit strategy for each one. This should be based on performances and seedings, alongside your desired profit margin for a particular trade. This will help you to maximize returns and avoid low-liquidity traps as more players are eliminated. Want to make any of these trades? Use our exclusive CORG promo code on Polymarket to earn a $20 trading bonus when you register and deposit $10. The post 2026 US Open Odds – Who Will Win at Flushing Meadows appeared first on Casino.org.