1 in 4 Morgan Stanley Interns Used Betting or Prediction Markets, Survey Says

More than a quarter of Morgan Stanley’s summer interns in North America used a betting or prediction market mobile application in the past year, once again proving, if necessary, the interest that young adults express in the ever-growing event-based wagering. 500 Interns, Surveyed The finding comes from Morgan Stanley’s annual summer intern survey, which polls more than 500 interns at the investment bank across North America. Many of those surveyed are 21 years old or younger, making the results notable as prediction markets continue to attract younger users. This year marked the first time Morgan Stanley included questions about betting habits and prediction market usage in its intern survey. The results showed that 25% of respondents had used a betting or prediction market application during the previous 12 months. Among those who participated, the market was concentrated around the two leading platforms, with 55% of surveyed interns saying they had used multiple betting or prediction market apps. The Age Requirement Issue The findings of the survey come as prediction markets face increasing scrutiny in the United States, particularly over their appeal to younger consumers and the differences between their age requirements and those governing traditional sports betting. In most US states where sports betting is legal, customers generally must be at least 21 to wager. Some prediction market platforms, however, have allowed users to open accounts at 18. The National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG) has raised concerns about these differences. Recent NCPG data found that 37% of adults aged 18 to 34 had used a prediction market, suggesting that participation among younger adults extends well beyond Morgan Stanley’s intern population. The industry is also attracting attention from Wall Street employers. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have reportedly introduced restrictions on employee participation in certain prediction markets, with the latter updating its employee code of conduct with provisions concerning prediction market trading. Similarly, Goldman Sachs prohibited trading in financial and political event contracts offered by yes-or-no exchanges. At the same time, some operators are moving toward stricter age policies. Sports-focused peer-to-peer exchange Novig recently became one of the first event contract platforms to adopt a nationwide 21-plus age requirement. Morgan Stanley’s survey also looked into another key question surrounding prediction markets: can the collective wisdom of market participants consistently outperform traditional forecasting methods? The bank noted that prediction markets do not always have a clear advantage over political polls or expert forecasts. Complex polling aggregation can match or exceed market predictions, while teams of so-called superforecasters have also outperformed prediction markets when their forecasts were combined using statistical methods.