VEGAS BETTING REPORT: Are Bettors Overvaluing the Hype Around Rookie Quarterbacks?

Las Vegas oddsmakers say they’re closely monitoring the progress of Raiders rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza, paying particular attention to how his coaches assess his development. Los Angeles Rams quarterback Ty Simpson throws during the second half against the Kansas City Chiefs on Aug. 15 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Image: William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) In a media session Friday (Aug. 21), Raiders head coach Klint Kubiak said he liked what he saw in Mendoza in Thursday (Aug. 20) night’s 22-20 preseason win over the Houston Texans. The No. 1-overall draft pick played the entire first half. “In the critical downs, I thought he played his best,” said Kubiak. “There are things that we must get corrected that we will address ASAP.” Mendoza Shows More Promise The key for Mendoza to find more consistency in his play? “Reps,” he said. “I’m not trying to be a smart aleck there. That’s just the truth.” Mendoza finished 8-for-15 for 86 yards, his game marked by an interception in the first half by Wade Woodaz, which was returned for a touchdown. He also threw two excellent passes to rookie Malik Benson, but Benson dropped both of them. It was Aidan O’Connell who led a comeback by the Raiders in the second half, going 15-for-24 for 166 yards, sparking the Raiders’ win. Raiders Weigh Quarterback Options Despite the Raiders signing free agent quarterback Kirk Cousins in April to mentor Mendoza, the young quarterback has impressed in his first two NFL games, displaying the arm strength, raw ability, and maturity that made him the No. 1 pick. Mendoza is one of the few rookie NFL quarterbacks with a chance to start for their team when games start for real in a few weeks or at least position themselves to step into the starter’s role at some point during the regular season. Kubiak hasn’t named Cousins, Mendoza or O’Connell as the starter, as yet. Cousins has played just one series so far in the preseason. Other Rookies Making Noise Another rookie quarterback worth watching is Carson Beck with the Arizona Cardinals. Jacoby Brissett is the presumed starter, and Gardner Minshew is also there, but Beck has impressed in camp so far. Los Angeles Rams’ No. 13 overall draft pick Ty Simpson went 21-for-25 for 190 yards and two TDs in his preseason debut against the Kansas City Chiefs (won by the Rams 20-12) and went 8-for-12 for 73 yards in more limited action in Saturday (Aug. 22)’s 34-0 win over the New Orleans Saints. While Matthew Stafford is obviously the starter in Los Angeles, oddsmakers are monitoring Simpson as well, in the event of any Stafford injury. Maye Offers Recent Blueprint Cade Klubnik in New York with the Jets, who has already received a preseason start, and Drew Allar in Pittsburgh with the Steelers, who had an excellent preseason debut (10-of-13, for 153 yards and three touchdowns), could also emerge as starters this season. The situation is reminiscent of 2024, when the New England Patriots’ Drake Maye, selected No. 3 overall by New England, impressed at training camp and pushed Brissett, then the Patriots’ starter, for the job. By Week 6, Maye had taken over as the starter, suiting up against Houston, beginning a rapid rise that culminated in a Super Bowl appearance the following season. With rookies like Mendoza generating attention, a question for oddsmakers is how much quarterback hype affects spreads, futures, and props, and whether bettors routinely overvalue rookie quarterbacks? Quarterback Hype Moves Markets “Quarterback hype can influence multiple betting markets throughout the preseason,” said Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook in Las Vegas. “We often see a surge of action when a quarterback either exceeds or falls short of expectations, impacting everything from season-long props to futures markets.” For example, after the Hall of Fame Game, Feazel said they saw increased betting on Bryce Young’s season-long unders when Haynes King unexpectedly played well and led his team on a game-winning drive late in the contest. Bettors React to Mendoza On the other hand, Mendoza’s strong performance in his first preseason game generated interest in Rookie of the Year markets, but after he threw a pick-six in his second appearance, bettors shifted toward his season-long unders. “Ultimately, the reaction depends on the specific situation, but news, coaching decisions, and on-field performance tend to have the greatest impact on betting activity during the preseason,” he added. Mendoza is one of the quarterback situations Feazel said Caesars is watching closely for its impact on futures markets. “As the No. 1 overall pick, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn’t see the field at some point this season,” said Feazel. “Even if the Raiders choose to be patient early, the expectation is that Mendoza will eventually take over as the starter and get significant playing time.” One Final Raiders Audition Beck is another rookie quarterback they are following. “Arizona faces a difficult path in the ultra-competitive NFC West, and if the team struggles, Brissett could find himself on a short leash,” he said. “In that scenario, Beck would be a logical candidate to step into the starting role and gain valuable experience later in the season.” Kubiak said he and the coaching staff are “talking through” how to go forward when the regular season starts, with three NFL-calibre quarterbacks. The Raiders have one preseason game left against the San Francisco 49ers on Thursday (Aug. 27) at Allegiant Stadium, giving Kubiak one final opportunity to evaluate his quarterbacks before deciding who starts Week 1 against Miami on Sept. 13. The post VEGAS BETTING REPORT: Are Bettors Overvaluing the Hype Around Rookie Quarterbacks? appeared first on Casino.org.