Regulus gives Brazil ban 5% chance of becoming permanent

Regulus Partners estimates that Brazil’s online gambling ban has a 5% chance of becoming permanent, describing this as “the least likely result, in our view at 5%”. Brazilian law has allowed the president to implement provisional measures effective immediately since 1988, before Congress reviews and approves them. Estimates show that the industry may have a 10% possibility of winning a court case before the deadline which would lead to its closure. Some calculations point out that there is an 85% chance that all operations will continue without any activities of Congress. The analysis identified as the only way to ban gambling by legal action and election outcomes enabling the lifting of the prohibition. Shifting gears, Regulus is confident that Flávio Bolsonaro has a 45% possibility of winning the elections which could end gambling ban although the gaming operators are likely to continue working. It is estimated that Lula may win the first round of the presidential elections with a 40% probability, but he will not win outright in this round. Regulus analysts said: The politician who helped to design the mess of fiscal contradictions and regulatory flaws that is legal gambling in Brazil now wants to castigate it; blaming the actors for following his script. The report points out that Kaizen Gaming, Super, bet365, Entain and Flutter are stated to be the biggest players in the market who have resources to survive a temporary ban. The analysts said: Most of the largest Brazilian operators by market share: Kaizen Gaming, Super, bet365, Entain, Flutter, have the resources to weather a blackout and resume trading – but these operators represent only 55-60% of the current market (RP estimates). Most of the rest of the c. 80 operators are local or regional – many of whom will not be able to afford more than a few days of zero revenue. It is stated in the report that Lula’s administration managed to raise roughly €3.4 billion in gambling taxes. At the same time it is noticed that an illegal market managed to generate around €21.3 billion in revenue, including activity linked to Jogo do Bicho, crypto-led online gambling and illegal slot machines.