Polymarket Trader Accused of Using KPMG Audits to Forecast Companies’ Earnings

Federal law enforcement authorities are reportedly preparing to bring charges against a KPMG employee accused of using confidential audit data on publicly traded companies for their financial gain on the prediction market Polymarket. A KPMG office in Adelaide, Australia, is pictured in November 2025. Reports have surfaced that a KPMG employee allegedly made trades on companies’ earnings results on the prediction market Polymarket. (Image: Shutterstock) KPMG, one of the so-called “Big Four” accounting giants, acts as the independent external auditor for dozens of S&P 500 companies. Reports began surfacing last month that someone inside KPMG was using nonpublic audit data to make well-timed trades on Polymarket forecasting the quarterly results of companies, including Home Depot, DoorDash, Wells Fargo, and General Mills. The Wall Street Journal reports that 42 bets were made on the earnings results of 18 companies. All but one of the yes/no contract trades were winners. The trades profited about $22,000. Polymarket Compliance Polymarket is a crypto-based prediction market, giving users more anonymity than other exchanges. But after relaunching its US platform in December 2025, the company has increased its commitment to know-your-customer regulations, regularly assisting in law enforcement investigations and referring suspicious trading to relevant authorities. While we do not comment on specific law enforcement matters, we regularly refer matters to law enforcement and support ongoing investigations as part of our commitment to protecting the integrity of our markets,” a Polymarket spokesperson told the WSJ. No KPMG employee has been charged in the reported scandal. The accounting firm said it has “zero tolerance” for employees using nonpublic client information, “including on prediction markets.” Polymarket’s global, non-US-facing platform allows traders to buy and sell shares of outcomes tied to companies’ earnings. Traders can stake financial predictions on quarterly results ranging from the world’s largest enterprises, like Microsoft and Google, to O’Reilly Auto Parts and Cracker Barrel. The outcomes are based on Polymarket setting a Wall Street consensus estimate for the company’s earnings at the time of the market’s creation. For Cracker Barrel, earnings for the restaurant’s Sept. 14 release are expected at $0.16 per share. Traders think there’s a 75% chance the company will beat the forecast, with “yes” shares trading at 75 cents. KPMG has offices around the world. It’s unclear where the alleged insider made the Polymarket trades. Possible Charges With the emergence of non-traditional prediction markets still rather new, legal experts say the law continues to evolve. Attorneys with Debevoise & Plimpton in New York said prediction markets “are not an insider trading safe zone.” Partners Charu Chandrasekhar, Daniel Gitner, and Douglas Zolkind said traders risk criminal charges if they use nonpublic government information, classified corporate intelligence, regulatory knowledge, litigation insight, or any other market-moving nondisclosed information. The legal theories advanced by the Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are not limited to classified information and can readily be deployed to charge insider trading in event contracts on the basis of confidential corporate information that was misused in breach of a duty,” the attorneys said. The legal guidance provided an array of examples for employees, contractors, lawyers, bankers, consultants, and board members, all of whom could possess nonpublic information. The attorneys advised that the referenced insiders refrain from trading on unannounced mergers, clinical-trial results, regulatory approvals, earnings, layoffs, cybersecurity incidents, litigation or settlements, and project launches. The post Polymarket Trader Accused of Using KPMG Audits to Forecast Companies’ Earnings appeared first on Casino.org.