Macquarie: Prediction Market Taker Volume to Reach $187B in 2026

Prediction market taker volume is poised to reach $187 billion this year, according to a new report from Macquarie. DraftKings and rival FanDuel are poised to gain prediction market share, according to analyst. (Image: DraftKings/Shutterstock) Though that’s slightly below the research firm’s $190 billion forecast released last month, the new estimate is still well ahead of Macquarie’s prior forecast of $169 billion and it implies 8.5x growth from last year’s taker volume of $22 billion. In prediction market industry parlance, “takers” refers to the retail bettors and traders who absorb an exchange’s liquidity while the term “makers” refers to professional market participants, including market makers, who provide that liquidity. DraftKings, FanDuel Making Strides In a new report to clients, Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon notes that in September, two-thirds of domestic prediction market volume was commanded by a single operator, but there are signs that upstarts such as DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and Flutter Entertainment’s (NYSE: FLUT) FanDuel are climbing the ladder. The analyst points out that in September, a single prediction market operator commanded 63% of sports event contract volume with DraftKings and FanDuel chiming in at approximately 4% and 3%, respectively, but those operators are constrained by state-level limitations. They don’t offer sports derivatives in the states in which they book online sports wagers. “Importantly, this share is across the entire market, while DKNG/FLUT are 2x stated share in markets without legal OSB,” wrote Beynon. The analyst highlights mobile application (app) download data as evidence that DraftKings and FanDuel are poised to add market share in the prediction market space. During Week Four of the NFL season, DraftKings and FanDuel landed 11% and 7%, respectively, of prediction market app downloads. “DraftKings and FanDuel download positions suggest they remain under-monetized participants in the category and could gain share as geographic availability expands and product awareness improves,” observes Beynon. Signs of Growth Outside of Sports With the help of the starts of college football and the NFL, sports event contracts accounted for 79% of September volume on the largest prediction market, but with midterm Election Day just a few weeks away, there are signs that non-sports categories will contribute to increased volume on all-or-nothing exchanges. “While sports should remain the largest contributor to volume growth through year-end, the 2026 U.S. midterm election cycle is likely to drive a meaningful increase in political-event trading activity,” adds Beynon. “More broadly, total industry prediction market volume reached $20.1 billion in September, up 1,079% year-over-year, reflecting continued gains in liquidity, market breadth, and consumer awareness across the category.” The post Macquarie: Prediction Market Taker Volume to Reach $187B in 2026 appeared first on Casino.org.