Macau full-year 2026 GGR growth likely below 1pct, with 6pct decline forecast for Nov: Seaport

Seaport Research Partners expects 2026 year-on-year growth in Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) to be under 1 percent, with decline in GGR anticipated for November, albeit at a slower pace than seen in June, July and October. The brokerage’s’ forecast of 0.9 percent expansion in 2026 GGR would still put the Macau industry’s full-year performance well ahead of the local government’s estimate of MOP236 billion (US$29.21 billion). In 2025, Macau’s GGR had been just over MOP247.40 billion. Seaport’s latest outlook commentary was issued on Sunday, after the local government said October GGR fell 10.0 percent year-on-year, to MOP21.68 billion. Senior analyst Vitaly Umansky said the actual October result had been in line with the brokerage’s estimates. He added: “We forecast November to remain soft with GGR down 6.1 percent year-on-year, while fourth-quarter GGR is expected to be down 5.2 percent year-on-year. “We forecast 2026 growth of 0.9 percent and 2027 to increase 3 percent.” Seaport mentioned a number of factors contributing to October’s result. It was the biggest year-on-year moderation in GGR in the past four months. Mr Umansky wrote: “Softer demand is evident in higher-end play and is likely being caused by weaker China macroeconomic conditions, a falling stock market, and China government tax enforcement on offshore trusts impacting high net worth individuals with overseas assets, coupled with delaying [of] visits by some high rollers.” He added that while visitor volume to Macau remained “robust”, the “softness in high-end play has clearly driven weakness over the last several months”. Seaport’s estimates pointed to a low VIP play hold in October. VIP GGR had been down “over 35 percent year-on-year” and mass play “down low single digits of percent” year-on-year. Mr Umansky further noted: “Compared to third-quarter GGR market share, we estimate that Melco [Resorts & Entertainment Ltd] was the largest share gainer, while Galaxy [Entertainment Group Ltd] was the largest share loser.” Seaport said gaming stock valuations. “in particular those with Macau exposure… remain largely undemanding,” though the institution added that “short-term catalysts are lacking”. In a separate note issued on Monday, brokerage Texas Capital Securities said that “with nominal GGR contracting alongside elevated player reinvestment rates and promotional pricing, industry margins could face continued pressure.” Analyst David Bain noted that margins for Macau industry earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) “have compressed into the mid-20 percent range versus pre-pandemic baselines in the low-to-mid 30 percent.”