Kalshi At The Supreme Court: What Happens Next After The Ninth Circuit Split

The post Kalshi At The Supreme Court: What Happens Next After The Ninth Circuit Split appeared first on SportsHandle. Two federal appeals courts now disagree about whether sports event contracts count as bets, and the Supreme Court holds the only pen that settles it. Three petitions sit before the justices, the new term opens in days, and Kalshi keeps setting trading records while its legal position narrows. How the Split Happened The Third Circuit started the clock in April. Those judges found that Kalshi’s sports event contracts qualify as swaps on a CFTC-registered designated contract market, and that the Commodity Exchange Act likely preempts New Jersey from applying its gambling laws to them. That decision protected Kalshi in one of the country’s biggest wagering states. The Ninth Circuit went the other direction on Aug. 28. A three-judge panel ruled 3-0 that states may enforce their gambling laws against Kalshi’s sports event contracts, because those contracts fail the Commodity Exchange Act’s definition of a swap. The panel issued companion decisions touching Crypto.com and Robinhood, and district courts in Connecticut, New York, Utah, Wisconsin and Montana have recently sided with states as well. Circuit splits move the Supreme Court more reliably than almost anything else. Three Petitions, One Conference New Jersey skipped a rehearing request at the Third Circuit and instead asked the Supreme Court for extra time, with Justice Samuel Alito granting extensions that set a Sept. 3 filing deadline in Flaherty v. KalshiEx. Kalshi and Robinhood then took different approaches. Kalshi petitioned the Ninth Circuit for an en banc rehearing, which would put 11 judges on the case instead of three, while Robinhood filed its own certiorari petition at the Supreme Court. Attorney Daniel Wallach reads the two filings as a coordinated strategy, with the en banc request discouraging state enforcement across the Ninth Circuit while Robinhood pushes for fast treatment and consolidation with New Jersey’s petition. The justices get their first look at these petitions during the Sept. 28 long conference. Temper expectations on timing. The Court typically releases the resulting orders several days later, and the justices relist far more petitions than they grant or deny outright. A Ninth Circuit rehearing would also slow everything down, while a denial could push the case toward review during the October 2026 to June 2027 term. Cases involving Kalshi also sit in the Second, Fourth, Sixth and Seventh circuits, and the justices may simply wait for more of them. Tribes Opened a Second Front Nine days ago, the Ninth Circuit handed tribal operators a separate win. The court found that Blue Lake Rancheria and Chicken Ranch Rancheria of Me-Wuk Indians would likely succeed on claims that Kalshi’s contracts amount to unauthorized gaming under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, and it reversed a lower court’s refusal to grant a preliminary injunction. The judges looked past the labeling, noting that Kalshi advertises sports betting directly to consumers and that its contracts resemble conventional wagers. Every gaming tribe in the country now holds a sovereignty argument that runs independent of state law. Money Keeps Moving Anyway The business side tells the opposite story. Kalshi handled $983.4 million in NFL contracts during Week 1, according to DeFi Rate. That same tracker projects Kalshi could reach $56.51 billion in NFL volume this season under a conservative scenario, against $7.21 billion last season. Polymarket’s US arm, which launched in late 2025, has already captured roughly 43.8% of Kalshi’s football trading. Polymarket also led all gambling apps with 762,000 downloads in Week 1, beating Kalshi, DraftKings and FanDuel. That growth explains the urgency. Sports contracts have driven roughly 80% of Kalshi’s total volume since July 2024, so an adverse ruling threatens the core of the business rather than a side product. Traders comparing platforms can review our best prediction market apps rankings and current best prediction market promos before the next slate. SportsHandle will update this story as the orders arrive. The post Kalshi At The Supreme Court: What Happens Next After The Ninth Circuit Split appeared first on SportsHandle.