“First signs are quieter” – how real will the impact of gaming taxes on UK employment be?

Discussions in the build up to the unveiling of the UK budget by Chancellor of the Exchequer, John Healey,, has now seen the topic of employment walk arm-in-arm with the much more niche one of gambling tax. An increase in gaming taxes, specifically the Machine Games Duty (MGD), is widely expected. Healey is reportedly considering increasing the standard rate from 20% to 25%, though the Social Market Foundation (SMF) think tank is calling for a more drastic increase. The government’s logic for doing so is simple. The move would generate millions of pounds to support PM Andy Burnham’s plans for investment and development, though still a relative drop in the ocean in terms of how the big government’s spending plan is, and how much investment the UK needs. The betting industry’s feeling is that the government is not evaluating all consequences of raising MGD. With just over 24 hours left until Healey reveals his budget, industry representatives and recruitment specialists have shared concerns about the impact this could have on employment – but also stressed that the end is not nigh. “This industry is no different to any other industry,” says Peter Hannibal, Chief Executive Officer of the Gambling Business Group (GBG), a trade body representing the retail gaming space including betting shop operators. “We’ve been hit by national insurance increases and high energy prices, and the jobs are just not there at the moment, the investment’s not there. You can understand with threats of tax increases, nobody wants to invest in a business until they know what the future looks like.” Caroline Butler, Director of the TalentThrive advisory, also shares with us a concern about the long-term impact of changes in tax. Higher duties require changes in strategies, and in spending – that includes hiring budgets. “From a people and talent perspective, I think the biggest concern surrounding a further increase in Machine Games Duty is not simply the immediate risk of redundancies, but the longer term impact on recruitment, workforce investment and the UK’s competitiveness as a gaming employment market,” says Butler. “When businesses face sustained pressure on margins, headcount is inevitably one of the areas they review. That doesn’t always translate into immediate redundancies. “Often, the first signs are quieter: vacancies aren’t replaced, recruitment budgets are reduced, expansion plans are delayed and existing teams are expected to deliver more with fewer resources. “For the UK betting industry, I would expect any further significant tax increase to accelerate those conversations, particularly among operators with substantial retail exposure.” An appeal to employment Of course, the betting industry is far from the only sector exercising anxiety around employment right now. Staff across countless other sectors are going through the same thing, with one reason being a big elephant in the room we’ll get to later. Employment has become a huge talking point in betting industry lobbying ahead of this budget, however. In previous years the black market took centre stage, but the industry seems to have finally come around to the fact this argument has been falling on deaf ears. Recent months have seen the likes of Betfred founder Fred Done and Entain CEO Stella David take to the press to express concerns about employment. Gaming machines are a key product in the high street betting shops Betfred and Entain operate, the latter via Ladbrokes Coral, vastly underpinning margins. “If Machine Games Duty increases further, I would expect it to put additional pressure on employment, particularly in high-street betting shops and land-based gambling businesses where machine revenue is an important part of the overall commercial model,” says Alastair Cleland, Group Managing Director of Conxesus Group. “The industry is already dealing with significant tax changes, so the concern is the cumulative impact rather than any single measure in isolation.” The government is in the unenviable position of balancing the pressing need to address the high living costs that have plagued the UK for years on one hand and a desire to drive growth, something which requires favourable business conditions, on the other. Reports ahead of the budget suggest the National Minimum Wage for 18-20 year olds will increase from £10.85 to £11.27 while the National Living Wage for people aged 21 and over will rise from £12.71 to £13.20. For the some two million people in the UK who earn minimum wage, it’s undeniable that this is a positive move and will make many peoples’, and families’, lives much easier. For businesses, it is something that needs to be factored into budgets. “When operators are faced with higher taxation alongside wages, property costs and other operating expenses, they have fewer options to protect margins,” says Cleland. “That inevitably brings decisions around shop closures, staffing levels and future investment into sharper focus.” The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), another trade body, asserts that a doubling of the standard MGD rate would cost 3,800 jobs. Flutter Entertainment, meanwhile, has pinned the loss of over 1,400 jobs across its business on the Remote Gaming Duty (RGD) increase in April. “Flutter’s proposed restructuring is particularly significant because of the scale involved,” says Butler. “When an established operator announces potential job losses of this magnitude, it naturally raises questions about how other businesses will respond to similar pressures. “I would be cautious about directly attributing Flutter’s announcement to the proposed Machine Games Duty increase, given the existing tax changes already affecting the business. “However, it does demonstrate the extent to which taxation and operating costs are influencing workforce decisions across the sector.” Room to breathe Employment, particularly youth employment, has become a huge talking point in British politics in the run up to the Autumn budget. The number of young people classed as NEETs (not in employment, education or training). According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), there are 981,000 people aged 16-18 who were classed as NEET in April-June 2026. The UK is fast becoming a dire job market for young people – and the betting industry has focused heavily on this in its lobbying ahead of the 2026 budget. It’s undeniable that the industry has a range of job roles available – whether working in a betting shop, developing tech and games, online or on the phone customer service, player protection, or marketing. A big question, however, is how many of these vacancies are still going? “Speculation around job losses inevitably creates uncertainty, and that is something we would very much like to avoid,” says Jennifer Innes, CEO of BettingJobs, an international recruitment agency focused on the betting industry. “As an industry, we are still dealing with the very real consequences of regulatory change in the Brazilian market, working with those whose roles have been affected,” she continues. “Against that backdrop, now the prospect of further changes in the UK, potentially resulting in additional job losses. From a recruitment perspective, we have seen a marked reduction in opportunities with UK Gambling Commission-licensed operators, fewer roles available across both the UK and Gibraltar, and indications that some businesses are shifting hiring activity towards other European locations.” Regulation vs robots There is one big elephant in the room to address, however, one I alluded to above. To some extent, are some changes in the industry’s headcount a technological inevitability, while also being driven by changing player preferences. It won’t have come as a coincidence to many that the job losses throughout the industry are coinciding with increased adoption of AI in everyday life and in business. While the tax increases have undoubtedly had an impact on budgets, the more widespread use of AI does raise the question as to whether taxes are either a) a convenient excuse or b) are exacerbating a process that was already underway anyway. “I am frequently asked how AI is affecting recruitment and the number of roles available across the iGaming sector,” Innes retorts. “My view, based on what we are seeing in the recruitment market, is that regulatory change is currently having a more immediate impact on employment than AI. “The changes in Brazil and the UK demonstrate how quickly regulatory decisions can affect business operations, hiring plans and, ultimately, people’s livelihoods.”