DraftKings Could Generate $57M in NFL Prediction Market Exchange Fees

Just two of NFL Week 1 games are in the books, but it’s already clear the most wagered-on sport in the U.S. is likely to drive a tidal wave of prediction market activity this season. All it took was two NFL games to draw a surge in prediction market activity. (Image: NFL/Getty) In a report out late Friday, Jefferies estimates that contract volume on DraftKings’ (NASDAQ: DKNG) DKeX and Crypto.com’s Nadex reached $42 million and $16 million, respectively, over the course of Wednesday’s Super Bowl rematch between the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks and the Thursday night tilt between the Los Angeles Rams and the San Francisco 49ers. “The Patriots-Seahawks session ranked as the 10th-highest volume day on record for prediction markets, trailing only select World Cup trading days and the prior Saturday’s NCAAF Week 1 slate,” writes analyst David Katz. “Looking ahead, we believe this weekend has the potential to set new industry volume records, with the first full NFL Sunday of the season positioned to be one of the largest trading days in prediction market history.” Overall prediction market volume across the 10 platforms tracked by Jefferies reached $2.46 billion on Wednesday and $1.99 billion yesterday. NFL Season Could Be Big for DKeX DraftKings launched DKeX, its in-house prediction market exchange, in late June, and if the first two NFL games are an accurate representation, this NFL season could be significant for that platform. Jefferies estimates DKeX generated $106,000 in market maker fees across those two games, positioning it for an implied revenue opportunity of up to $57 million over the course of the season. “Our estimate also excludes potential trading profits or losses from DKNG’s market-making and risk-taking activities,” adds Katz. “Overall, we believe the analysis reinforces that exchange fees represent the more recurring and predictable revenue opportunity, while market-making economics are inherently more variable and dependent on spreads, inventory management, hedging, and event outcomes.” Currently, volume on DKeX is light compared to entrenched prediction market incumbents, but the other side of that coin is that if the DraftKings exchange makes even incremental progress, the financial benefits could be noteworthy. Don’t Sleep on Crypto.com Crypto.com’s Nadex saw contract volume of $35 million and $37 million, respectively, on the Patriots/Seahawks and 49ers/Rams games, stoking exchange fees of $42,000. Jefferies estimates the platform, which services multiple prediction market operators, has an implied revenue opportunity of $5 million for this NFL season. However, that estimate could prove light because earlier this week, Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) — one of the fastest-growing names in the prediction market industry — said it will soon route “a selection” of football event contract volume through Crypto.com. Robinhood is taking equity stakes in both Crypto.com and that company’s now standalone OG.com prediction market. The post DraftKings Could Generate $57M in NFL Prediction Market Exchange Fees appeared first on Casino.org.