Brazil’s iGaming ban: offshore share triples as affiliate coverage shrinks

Blask data shows the first effects of the ban in the world’s biggest iGaming market by user demand. Brazil is the #1 iGaming market by user demand among the 142 countries Blask currently tracks. Since the regulated market launched in January 2025, onshore brands have held more than 96% of the total interest. Four days after the ban was published, the offshore share approached 10%. Meanwhile, affiliate coverage of the most promoted brands fell by 41.5% in a week. Offshore share hit a record high Between the launch of the regulated market on 1 January 2025 and 24 September 2026, offshore brands accounted for just 3.9% of Brazil’s iGaming demand (measured by Blask Index) on average. On 24 September, the day before the ban, their share stood at 3.4%. After the ban was published, the offshore share of Blask Index rose every day and reached 9.9% on 29 September. That was the highest daily value since the regulated market launched. Ricardo Bianco Rosada, founder of brmkt.co and a gaming executive since 2001, expects players to move to the illegal market once licensed sites go offline on 6 October. The illegal market, he says, never left Brazil and ran alongside the licensed one for two years. Ricardo Bianco Rosada, Founder of brmkt.co: The ban does not create that market. It hands it the other 30 million customers, the ones who until now were betting on sites that could see them. Affiliates went down with the licensed market The ban also covers intermediation and advertising, effectively shutting down Brazil’s regulated betting affiliate market together with licensed operators. As of 29 September, the 20 most promoted brands had a combined affiliate coverage of 418 sites, down from 715 a week earlier. That is a 41.5% drop, and every brand in the group lost coverage. Bet365, the most promoted brand in August, lost the most: its coverage fell from 60 to 31 affiliate sites. Brazino777, Novibet and Sportingbet followed. Stake became the most promoted brand, although its coverage fell from 51 to 38 affiliate sites. Betano, the country leader by user demand, was present on 33 sites, 15 fewer than a week earlier. Luiz Felippe Correia de Almeida, CEO of Smart Social, points out that the measure bans affiliate links, sponsored posts and betting bonus codes in Brazil, whatever the payment model. Luiz Felippe Correia de Almeida, CEO of Smart Social: Affiliates that depend only on Brazil are under the most pressure. In his view, the natural move for them is to diversify into other GEOs: continuing to target Brazilian audiences through alternative channels exposes affiliates to fines of up to 10% of group turnover. Bottom line Four days after the ban was published, offshore brands’ share of Brazil’s iGaming demand had almost tripled to a record 9.9%. At the same time, affiliate coverage of the 20 most promoted brands fell 41.5% in a week. The licensed sites are still online for withdrawals, but the market around them is already shrinking.