Brazil’s Coffers Could Suffer from Abrupt Online Gambling Closures

A new study by LCA Consultores has warned that the ramifications of President Lula da Silva’s abrupt provisional ban on online gambling could be significant, estimating that as much as BRL73 billion in tax contributions could be on the line over the next four years. Ban Stings on Many Levels – Financially Most of All This amounts to about $14.7 billion in lost tax revenue, along with 15,500 direct and indirect jobs at risk. The study seeks to help highlight the immediate impact that Provisional Measure No. 1394 could have on the industry and the economy, as well as the industry that was actually launched with Lula’s help when he stepped into office in 2023. Lula has been looking for reelection, contesting against Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the jailed former President, Jair Bolsonaro, and critics have said that he has used a populist refrain – bashing the gambling industry – to give himself a boost in the polls ahead of the elections, which took place on October 4, 2026. Lula trailed Bolsonaro by 2% in the final outcome of the first round, with the second round due to take place on October 25, 2026. In the meantime, the impact of Lula’s decision is already materializing, although the measure is unlikely to withstand congressional review or indeed be overturned by Bolsonaro, who might be heading to office after the elections at the end of the month. The consultancy estimates that 5,500 indirect jobs linked to the sector are now in jeopardy, whereas 10,000 jobs directly tied to the online gambling industry are on the hook. The direct jobs alone accumulated about BRL 460 million a year in salaries, around $92 million, the study’s authors claim. The Country’s Tax, Jobs and Sports Partnerships on the Hook Even worse, the majority of active players who are participating in the regulated gambling sector today are preparing to make the jump to unregulated gambling websites, which would mean that Brazil will be faced with another challenge – dealing with people who are gambling without access to safeguards and responsible gambling measures. But this is not the last financial blowback Brazil will likely experience, the authors argue. Sports betting and online casino gaming companies could also potentially seek compensation to the tune of BRL 2.55 billion or $512 million over remaining license fees. Then, there is the matter of sports partnerships, with gambling companies plowing more than BRL $1.1 billion or $221 million to fund and sponsor Brazil Serie A’s football league in 2025 alone.