Brazil’s Abrupt Ban Could Drive 21.6M People to Illegal Gambling

New research by Blask, a gaming market intelligence firm, estimates that the true impact of Brazil’s newly introduced gambling ban could end up driving as many as 21.6 million sports gamblers to offshore platforms, posing a serious risk to their well-being, financial and personal information, and overall safety. Blask has used a comparative study with another market, citing India’s ban on online gambling in August 2025 as the basis of its current projections. Brazil’s government under its embattled President, Lula Da Silva, introduced a snap decision on September 25, enforcing a ban on fixed-odds sports betting and online casino gaming. Blask Highlights What May Happen in Brazil Next Licensed operators formally stopped operating in the country on October 6, switching off their websites and apps, but legal action has since suggested that the measure may be overturned, with some operators already confirming that they will continue their licensed operations locally. Brazil currently has a player base of 25.2 million legal bettors, with 86% of those, argues Blask, inclined to seek alternatives offshore. While this is modelled after the Indian experience, Blask feels fairly confident that its extrapolation is relevant to the Brazilian market. The government of President Silva brought a rare opportunity to gamble legally at home, which was unregulated until he stepped into office, ousting Jair Bolsonaro. However, it was Silva who introduced the Provisional Measure that has now sent the industry into disarray. Many licensed casinos, though, may continue to operate offshore, too, with Blask suggesting that the switch to “offshore gambling” will be quicker than it was in India. “Brazil’s move should be faster than India’s: Indians had to swap fantasy and rummy apps for offshore casinos and sportsbooks, while Brazilians will find the same sports betting and casino offshore, often from the same brands.” Players Still Want to Gamble – Who Will Fill the Vacuum Blask also highlighted previously highlighted potential issues, including the $1.8 billion paid in federal betting taxes in 2025, as well as the $456 million in licensing fees for five-year authorizations. The sector also supports 15,500 jobs, along with 10,000 direct and the rest indirect positions. Importantly, the report was clear about the consequences of shutting down the market: “Shutting down a legal market doesn’t extinguish player demand.”