Brazil Gambling Ban Puts $14.7B in Tax Revenue at Risk, Study Warns

Brazil’s gambling ban could put up to R$73 billion ($14.7 billion) in tax revenue at risk over the next four years, according to a new study. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at the Brazilian Embassy in Washington, D.C., in May 2026. His gambling ban could cost Brazil $14.7B in lost tax revenues over the next four years. (Image: Andrew Harnik/Getty) The research was conducted by LCA Consultores on behalf of Brazilian trade body the Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR). As well as the risk to tax revenue, it also estimated that around 15,500 direct and indirect jobs were at risk from the ban. The study comes as Brazil begins enforcing its comprehensive ban on sports betting and online casino, which was signed into law by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September. The measure took immediate effect but requires approval from the country’s congress to remain in force. Critics of the measure will hope that President Lula’s defeat to Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election last Sunday (October 4) could change things. Prediction market traders currently give Bolsonaro an 84% chance of becoming Brazil’s next president when the country votes in a run-off on October 25. In the meantime, licensed betting sites were required to go offline from October 6. The government said on Tuesday (October 6) that previously authorized platforms had complied with the shutdown. Jobs, Taxes, and License Fees at Risk LCA Consultores estimated that Brazil’s regulated betting industry directly employs around 10,000 people. Another 5,500 jobs are indirectly linked to the sector. Those direct jobs account for around R$460 million ($92 million) per year in salaries, according to the study. LCA Consultores also calculated the potential tax impact if players currently betting with regulated operators move to the unregulated sector. It assumed that between 80% and 100% of those players would migrate offshore if the ban is upheld. Under that scenario, banning both sports betting and online casino gaming could cost governments between R$58 billion ($11.6 billion) and R$73 billion ($14.7 billion) over the next four years. Another financial risk flagged in the study comes from potential legal exposure. Operators paid R$30 million ($6 million) for five-year federal licenses before the government ban was introduced. LCA Consultores calculated potential exposure of R$2.55 billion ($512 million) if all 85 licensees sought compensation. Government Makes Minor Soccer Shirt Concession Brazilian soccer, which built a close relationship to the gambling industry over recent years, is also particularly at risk. LCA Consultores said that gambling companies spent more than R$1.1 billion ($221 million) on sponsorships of teams in Brazil’s Série A football league during 2025. While the wholesale betting ban includes sponsorships and advertising, the government has made a limited concession. In a technical note, it said that manufacturers and retailers can continue to sell existing soccer shirts featuring betting brands. However, the exemption does not permit new shirts or sponsorship agreements. Congress has meanwhile received dozens of proposed amendments to the provisional measure. One would allow existing shirt and stadium sponsorships to continue until the end of the season or for up to 24 months. The post Brazil Gambling Ban Puts $14.7B in Tax Revenue at Risk, Study Warns appeared first on Casino.org.