Brazil could lose up to €13B in tax revenue over the ban

Brazil could lose up to BRL73 billion in tax revenue over the next four years following the provisional ban. The study links the projected losses to Provisional Measure No. 1394, which suspended Brazil’s regulated online gambling market. LCA Consultores puts the potential tax loss at about EUR 13.14 billion. Around 10,000 direct industry jobs could be affected, along with 5,500 indirect positions. Salaries tied to direct employment currently total about BRL 460 million a year. The most engaged users who currently utilize services from companies in the regulated gambling market will be compelled to move to illegal websites after their closure, which will leave the users without any protection that they were using before. The companies will demand up to BRL 2.55 billion in compensation for the paid license fees. At the same time, the gambling companies contributed over BRL 1.1 billion (about EUR 195.25 million) to support the Brazilian Serie A football league this year, the ending of gambling operations would deprive this sports association of financing. The President can still cancel the decree, while Congress can also overturn it. The study refers to Brazil’s presidential elections scheduled for October 2026. President Lula is running against Flavio Bolsonaro and after the first round of voting on October 4, 2026, Lula is losing to the current president with a 2% gap. The second round will take place on October 25.